Two Signals emanating out of the Indo-Pacific region

 

The news of the Quadrilateral security dialogue between India, Japan, Australia and the US, to be held virtually this month has reinvigorated the security environment of the Indo-Pacific region. While the new Biden administration, at the helm, in the US has decreed its continuance with Trump’s China policy of pressurizing, sending red signals to China, the picture in the Himalayas is rather ameliorating with the two Asian giants currently disengaging along the LAC. However, these new developments in the security apparatus of the Indo-Pacific have sent two broad inter-related signals which need to be considered when looking at the relationship between the trio of India-China-the US in global politics.

The first signal is a concrete policy direction of New Delhi. The China challenge of India has cemented the view, often neglected in the military and policy circles, of China, is a major threat to Indian aspirations at the regional as well as at the global level. In calculating policy options at hand with New Delhi, policymakers find a defunct organization (Quad) to deal with Beijing. Since then, the mindset of dousing the fire of apprehension among the minds of the policymakers of Beijing and placating Beijing while denouncing the US’s embrace of India has been defenestrated and actions on the ground have been taken to save the domestic as well as the global interest of New Delhi, the cases of banning Chinese apps to decouple from the Chinese economy and swiftly moving with the Quad are some cases in point. Since the disengagement process is happening, the official view among the politburo of CPC (Communist Party of China) is that India will backtrack from this Quad initiative and again switch to the old method of idealist diplomacy vis-à-vis China. This could be gauge through what Wang Yi, State chancellor and foreign minister of China, said after talking to EAM Dr S. Jaishankar while the disengagement is in the process along the LAC that boundary disputes are historic problems and they do not show the full picture of India-China relations, signalling to hit an optimistic note of back to business approach with New Delhi. However, these optimist notes have been watered-down by New Delhi when it showcased to hedge its bet on the Quad despite a conciliatory approach by China along the LAC, the same was seen during the Modi-Biden phone call. The question is, what it might entail, with these developments, for China?

The official view among the politburo of CPC (Communist Party of China) is that India will backtrack from this Quad initiative and again switch to the old method of idealist diplomacy vis-à-vis China

The fact that India-China relations are at an irreparable juncture needs further scrutiny, but the direction to Indian foreign policy has, more or less, been defined with the border incursions along the LAC. Further, the Indo-Pak agreement of adhering to the ceasefire pact, though far-fetching, has given some credence to bolstering Indian foreign policy choices which have led to its adversary to give it some way at the global level. That perception of India defenestrating the Quad and US’s alliance after disengagement has dissipated, in Wang Yi’s eulogy, like the seafoam. India’s perseverance at the borders has sent a signal to Beijing that New Delhi has not budged and will not do so in the future. This means that China has limited options vis-à-vis India and its bargaining power has been constrained.

Connected to the first signal is the second signal, which begs us to look inside the domestic politics of Beijing, which portrays Beijing’s acceptance of the challenge it faces. While unveiling the 14^th five-year plan, President Xi Jinping enunciated the idea of “Dual Circulation Policy”, which in layman terms means “Aatmanirbhar China”, which, in Xi’s thinking, is an important step to warding-off external threats from some nations, coercing and bullying China, by making China self-reliant on domestic markets while concomitantly making the world more dependent on China through technological innovation. Once the wheel of dual-circulation will start moving, it will, according to official thinking, make the Chinese economy more resilient and will secure Chinese domestic as well as global interests. This policy should be looked at keeping in mind the hindsight of global politics and the great power competition between the US and China. The official thinking in Beijing is that there is an imminent danger from Washington and New Delhi and Quad partners are working as a catalyst to this danger, which needs to be taken care of. The best and the most effective way to do this could be making our house more resilient to external threats while making the adversary more vulnerable (read dependent). Owing to its limited options this policy seems more viable in the present scenario for Beijing, and should it be successful, it could turn the table around.

The official thinking in Beijing is that there is an imminent danger from Washington and New Delhi and Quad partners are working as a catalyst to this danger, which needs to be taken care of. The best and the most effective way to do that could be making our house more resilient to external threats while making the adversary more vulnerable (read dependent)

Keeping both of these broad signals in mind, one thing which might be construed is that Beijing is accepting the threat emanating out of the US and the Quad. Whatever it says, about the optimism it has over the new Biden administration’s working with China or counting on New Delhi to be back in business with China, is a veneer to cloak the inner fear, or say the biggest fear, of a coalition being formed against Beijing. The trio of India-China-the US will see a lot of string-pulling given the fact that lines have been drawn on the sand to send out a red signal to the adversary either to budge or face consequences. The decision to move forward with the Quad by the member countries, despite pressure ratcheting down from Beijing and no lurking Chinese danger in the foreseeable future, is one such signal which is out and loud. Now it remains interesting to be seen how Beijing will react to it in the times to come.

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This article was originally published in The Eastern Herald.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A carrot or a hanging stick?

The news of an agreement being signed between India and China about the disengagement process along the LAC, as conveyed by MOD Rajnath Singh during the Rajya Sabha proceeding points to the consensus being formed after nine iterations of rigorous military-level talks held concomitantly with diplomatic-level talks under the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC). During his address, while highlighting India’s willingness for disengagement, the minister points out the illegal Chinese occupation in UT of Ladakh. The address of the minister talks about a phased, coordinated and verified disengagement process in the north and south bank of Lake Pangong Tso to achieve the status quo ante of April, with a period of 48 hours for the next round of talks over the remaining areas after the completion of disengagement from the Pangong lake area. While the agreement rekindled hopes of de-escalation between the two Asian giants, it has brought to the fore some questions over the Chinese intention to disengage from other areas (including Hot Springs, Galwan Valley and Depsang Plains) as well as the time chosen for this agreement.

This agreement has been agreed upon after nine months of eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation between India and China, resulting in brinkmanship and tumultuousness in global politics. With so much happening on the world stage, clashes between Indian and Chinese forces worked as a force multiplier to the problems faced by the world. This culminated in new coalitions being formed, new thresholds being set and new narratives being created. Perhaps, one thing which becomes clear at the end of the second decade of the 21st century is that everything related to the present world order is obsolete and renewing it is the only way forward. 

This culminated in new coalitions being formed, new thresholds being set and new narratives being created

When the leader of the world, the US, was facing internal problems with a reticent attitude towards its globalist approach, the Chinese were the first to offer an alternative in asserting its credentials as a world agent for multilateralism. And it was at this juncture, when China used the salami-slicing tactic onto India and its neighbours (Taiwan and south-China sea neighbours) through border incursions and belligerence, viewing it as the most opportune time for making headways by pursuing active Defence tactics. However, India did provide a big hurdle to the Chinese ambitions, the fact remains that the repetitions of such actions along unresolved borders cast a death knell to the idea touted by a Chinese envoy to India, Sun Weidong of “Dragon and Elephant dancing together as the only right choice”. As India pushed China to negotiate after raising the ante by occupying the heights of the Kailash range and compelling Beijing to come to the negotiating table, successive talks did not bear any fruits.

The fact remains that the repetitions of such actions along unresolved borders cast a death knell to the idea touted by a Chinese envoy to India, Sun Weidong of “Dragon and Elephant dancing together as the only right choice”

While the agreement needs to be seen as a small step towards total disengagement, the fact remains that three flashpoints ( Depsang plains, Galwan valley and Hot Spring areas) remain to be resolved. A huge trust deficit remains between India and China which is hard to overcome unless some concrete steps are taken on the ground and going by the Chinese track record, one cannot trust China which claims to be the new poster child of multilateralism and rule-based order while doing the opposite on the ground. The question must also be raised over the timing of the Chinese intention to disengage, when the new President of the US, Joe Biden, has agreed to work closely towards a rule-based order, free and open Indo-pacific and on the Quad with India, while talking to India PM Narendra Modi on the one hand and raised issues over Xinjiang, Hongkong and belligerence of China in the Indo-Pacific, while talking to Chinese president Xi Jinping on the other. Perhaps, one thing which also needs to be taken into consideration is the WHO’s claim of the virus (COVID) not emanating from a Chinese lab, which has delegitimized the claim of COVID being a China virus and giving China room to spread new theories over its origin, which remained one of the main points of China asserting its claims along the LAC and elsewhere, to diffuse tensions simmering in its internal politics.

With all said and done, returning to the status quo of India-China bilateral relations is a far-fetched thing and repairing it might only happen with delineation of the LAC by both sides, through a collaborative and consensus-building exercise. What can be done in the short-term is put cost over every action that China will take in the future through capacity building measures at various levels from infrastructure to military-level to diplomatic-level. With a dearth of active measures taken by the Indian side to counter the looming threat of China, pursuing a sea-denial tactic strategy over the existing sea-capture strategy by the Indian Navy in the Indian Ocean with concomitantly embarking on a path of proactive military modernization is the way forward for India. With the lack of capital requirement for these measures, it is high time for India to have some serious considerations over the economic path that India should take in the future because the economy might always predate the military might.

It is high time for India to have some serious considerations over the economic path that India should take in the future because the economy might always predate the military might

Though contention remains between India and China over other areas, yet this agreement should be seen as a move in the right direction. Now it remains to be seen, what will happen in the time to come because we must always remember what Zhao Enlai said, “All diplomacy is a continuation of war by other means”, and this war, as espoused by Zhao, will be fierce and long-drawn between the two-Asian giants as they carve their path out in the post-COVID world.

 

 

Panacea for India's problems

 

As the world has entered the third decade of 21st Century after the tumultuousness of 2020, the rollout of the vaccine has rekindled hopes in the minds of the people with optimism that the future will be better. But as we pause and look in retrospect of what has happened in the past decade, we are anything but hopeful. The condition of the Indian economy, which had been facing tailwinds from several quarters in the pre-pandemic years has gone from bad to worse with an expected permanent loss of as much as $20 trillion due to COVID-19, as per a report by Credit Suisse. On top of this, Indian borders are facing the heat of an assertive neighbour with no sign of thaw in the near future. So, what could be done in this scenario? What panacea do we need to solve these problems?

As a matter of fact, the problems related to economics need a calibrated approach with retrofitting at several places to get out of the fiscally-tight position faced by the government. With the budget in the offing, hopes are high that government could do better by assigning more credit support to pandemic induced poor through austerity measure and fiscally-crunched SMEs through credit supply and concessions while having a forward-looking vision for a fast-paced growth of the Indian economy and averting a, rather euphemistic, K-shaped growth. In a recent interview to Economic Times, Raghuram Rajan, ex-RBI Governor touts the idea of giving more leeway to States in spending their way to recovery and investing more on infrastructure to get out of this problem and concomitantly looking beyond stimulus measures for underlying structural issues facing the Indian economy. 

"Replacing the narrative of Aatmanirbhar Bharat (Self-reliant India) with Atma Vishwasi Bharat (Self-confident India) to ameliorate the discourse among foreign investors."

However, rather than getting more open vis-a-vis global markets, the idea of “Aatmanirbharta” is making rounds in the country. While seems to be a perfect narrative which might be able to strike the right chord with an emotional being and connecting him with the country’s clarion call to be self-reliant, this has raised eyebrows in the foreign markets over India’s inward turn. With the deluge of the world economy with inward turning or rather xenophobic output brewing among countries who were at the forefront of globalisation, the likes of the US and the UK, the narrative of Aatmanirbhar Bharat does everything but making investors sanguine. What is needed is an approach that helps India connect with global investors on a positive note and defenestrating our obsession with "Aatmanirbhar" industrial policy and recommiting to being a leader on new trade mechanism, as Mihir Swarup Sharma puts in his article.  In a recent article written by Rama Bijapurkar in the Indian Express, she called for replacing the narrative of “Aatmanirbhar Bharat” (Self-reliant India) with “Atma Vishwasi Bharat” (Self-confident Bharat) to ameliorate the discourse among foreign investors.

In the 5th Plenum of CPC’s central committee meeting, addressing the members, president Xi espoused the idea of “Dual-circulation” for the growth of the country in the future. He emphasised on the changing geo-economic realities of the world and encouraged to embark on the mission of shifting the tilt of the Chinese economy from global exports to domestic markets while retaining a hegemonistic position in global supply chains. It might look like an inward turn of China, but the way it was presented has assuaged the global investors in keeping faith over China at a time when global discourse against China has turned foul in recent years. Juxtaposing this with the recent deal between the EU and China on Investment, might corroborate the Chinese intention of openness. What are the learnings from this?

"India needs to be clever enough to take the economic advantage to be at par with the Chinese economy instead of getting stymied by its emotions to take forced decisions."

The above example teaches the need to learn and adapt as per the prevailing conditions while allaying the fears through choosing the narrative with caution and linking foreign policy with economic policy for developing a double-edged sword that might come handy in the future. Indian strategic and policy circles are failing while missing this node of how we can learn from China. We might be looking at the problem we have in the short-term while missing on some of the long-term benefits. The idea of not joining RCEP, rather seem alluring in the short-term, has some long-term serious ramifications for Indian geo-strategic and geo-economic interests, unless commensurate by individual free-trade agreements. In a webinar, Kishore Mahbubani, a Singaporean diplomat of Indian descent and author of Has China Won? The Chinese challenge to American primacy said that India needs to be cunning enough to take the economic advantage to be at par with the Chinese economy instead of getting stymied by its emotions to take forced decisions. 

While the idea of opening up and mending ways with China in concluding economic deals might seem self-deceiving, it is the other way round. It is the idea of making India economically strong because unless it is economically strong it cannot be militarily strong. Critics will say that there are other ways like making India self-reliant by developing national capacity or allying with the western countries for containing China, but the problem with these ideas is, neither do we have the technological and capital capacity to be self-reliant nor do we the bargaining power to make the ends meet in a western-led alliance on our terms. It is time to figure out what is more important, our short-term reticence instiagted by emotions or long-term benefits because the fact remains that our foreign policy is delineated from our economic policy and our vision is influenced by the emotions of Chinese incursions on the border areas.

While we may ponder over different dimensions of countering China, but the fact is China is too strong to be militarily defeated and too mighty to be economically bullied albeit having a weakling in the diplomatic route. The chance to have an edge lies in our diplomacy while linking it to our economy for a long-term vision of military modernization and building asymmetric warfare capability to counter China. For that, the western alliance will come handy to develop the military ties but that does not mean that opportunities that come to India could be neglected. It is high time to take reflective decisions on our policies thus far and to learn from the enemy we are facing on our borders and adapt because as Sun Tzu puts it, “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.” 

India's options in the changing nature of the Gulf region

It was 3rd January 2020, when the US's drone struck the Baghdad International Airport killing one of the most coveted men of Iran, Kasim Soleimani, the commander of Iran Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force, which has created a splinter effect throughout the gulf region. Iran, which was facing the heat due to the collapse of JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action), turned rogue against the US and in retaliation struck two Iraqi military facilities of the US, with no casualties. What started as minor bottlenecks from the Trump administration turned into brinkmanship that has infiltrated the Gulf region ushering in the new deals in the form of Abraham Accords between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, providing a thaw to the long-held animosity between Israel and the gulf.

However, things are not as simple as they look. The recent killing of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Farikhzade, allegedly by Israel, has turned the events to a point of no turning back. The recent legislation in the Iranian parliament regarding the breach of nuclear stockpile restrictions up to 20%, way up than what was agreed upon in JCPOA at 3.6%, has exacerbated the matters. Further, the feud happening in the Iranian politics between Ayatollah Khamenei supported by hard-liners and incumbent President Hassan Rouhani supported by moderates, with the looming elections to be held in mid-2021 has impeded the process of amelioration of ties with the US. 

Whilst all that is happening is worth noting, one thing which could set the trajectory of the Gulf either to moderation of ties or a situation on the brink of war, is the Abraham accords. Two things are worth considering when we talk about these accords. First, this accord has emerged as a clear anti-Iranian accord to capture the rise of Iran in the Gulf region and has nudged both Israel and the Gulf to clear out the differences. Second, this accord is a face-saving deal by the Saudis and the Emiratis due to their losing position in the Muslim world with the projected resurrection of Turkey, as a neo-ottoman empire, trying to project itself as the leader of the disintegrating Muslim world.

The Abraham accords are pushing the gulf to be the major flashpoint for years to come at a time when the world is facing challenges on various fronts from an archaic world order unable to contain an assertive China to the worldwide spread of a pandemic. With the changing scenario in the gulf, speculations are rife over what might be the stance of India in the future, which has welcomed the accords but concomitantly supported the Palestinian cause.

Whilst pondering over this issue is imperative for Indian policymakers, four things need to be taken into consideration before taking a major step ahead:

First, India is facing a catch-22 situation whereby it cannot backtrack from its long-held position on Palestine and ignore its traditional-ally Iran on the one hand while supporting the accords on the other. However, given the numbers of the diaspora (approx. 31 million) working in the Gulf region and India's burgeoning military and technological partnership with Israel, New Delhi has no other choice but to recalibrate its options and make some hard choices.

Second, whilst the hype over traditional ties with Iran looks alluring, the alleged coalition forming between China, Iran, Turkey and Pakistan, coupled with a belligerent China poses a threat to Indian interests in the gulf region. The recent incident of Chinese intelligence agents colluding with Pakistani agents and the Taliban, and Chinese meddling in Nepalese politics are some cases in point. New Delhi has two options either to defenestrate the accords and become vulnerable or to work in the direction of standing up for its interests.

Third, India's ailing economy which has been facing headwinds due to COVID is in a need of a major overhaul. Whilst the west and other regions are attractive players to invest in the Indian economy, the gulf countries which are in the need of diversifying their economic interests away from hydrocarbons sees India as a major market and destination to invest in. Juxtaposing these two scenarios of debilitating Indian economy and investment-willing Gulf, the salience of the gulf for India is an undeniable fact considering Indian needs.

Fourth, the gulf could be a partner for India in fighting against the problem of terrorism which have been hampering Indian interest for a long-time. Further, Israel and the gulf's partnership could be a major force for India in capturing the growing influence of radicalisation in the Indian subcontinent on the behest of few countries like Pakistan, while making it a more peaceful and amicable place.

Given the fact that there is a change of administration in the US which could become a major force for further turbulence in the region, things are becoming more alarming with the way they are proceeding. However, one thing which ought to remain constant is that India needs to be cognizant of its interests in the region and its steps should align with its interests on the ground even if it will have to make some hard choices or reposition some of its long-held ideas.

The Question of the China challenge for India

  

The world which has undergone considerable change during the Pandemic from the way we used to interact to the way we think, has impacted the nation-states as an actor of international politics to use means that were ought to help these very nations in preventing any future wars. The World is facing a grave danger today, not of conventional wars, but unconventional wars through the means of economic threats and technology. The starkest example of these changes is the wave of anti-globalization around the world, which is present in the idea of “Us V/S They”, to fight the Pandemic. Whilst the virus is a global threat, the actions against it are local with minimum collaborations. The most legitimate actor who is the perpetrator of this growing global tumultuousness in the US, which has orchestrated an agenda against multilateralism, the same country that was once a poster-child of the multilateral and liberal order. Then there are actors like China, which are presenting a threat to this liberal order on one hand and trying to present an alternative to it on the other. To exacerbate the matters, the rise of one-upmanship among the world leaders helps us to discern the present situation.

Whilst as all these things are happening, one thing presents the answer to many of our questions regarding the change in world-order i.e., the 5th plenary session of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) which had hosted the top echelons of the CCP to discuss the 14th five-year plan (2021-25). Chinese President Xi Jinping while addressing the session reiterated the need for a self-sufficient China, an idea that didn’t match the multilateral narrative of China, to better deal with international situations which will make China economically powerful to be neglected and technologically powerful to be threatened. In his speech, Xi Jinping specifically recognized the challenge which the “Few Countries” pose to China and opined the idea of self-deterrence capabilities, which is an idea diverging from the past belief of a rising global-power to better deal with the conditions of interference by foreign powers in Chinese backyards. Further, the legitimacy of CCP was being upheld during the session by referring to the challenge which can only be curbed by CCP. Two things come out of this session, first, China is fully aware of the looming danger over the Chinese head about its alienation in the global economic order. And second, China is trying to change its options at hand to be better able to deal with the repercussion of its past actions.

Two things come out of this session, first, China is fully aware of the looming danger over the Chinese head about its alienation in the global economic order. And second, China is trying to change its options at hand to be better able to deal with the repercussion of its past actions.

Whilst the US bears the credit to escalate the matters, China is credited for its all-out agenda in exacerbating this problem. Chinese narrative proposed by Deng Xiaoping in 1989 of “Hide your strength, bide your time”, has been defenestrated by President Xi Jinping thinking that China would stand up to the challenges posed by its adversaries and that China would be able to change the world order on its terms. However, things that were imagined didn’t materialize. The global coalition which is forming against China, be it the resurrection of the Quad or the Clean network initiative by the US, points out one thing i.e., cognizance of the China challenge. Even the upcoming Biden administration, which might not be as staunch as the Trump administration was, recognized the need to curb this problem. Further, the clashes between Indian and Chinese forces along the LAC has furthered this feeling to stand up to the China challenge. In these hard times, we are seeing China trying to bring the temperature down a notch. China’s recognition of the imperatives of self-sufficiency and self-deterrence points out the fact that the time which had been chosen by the Chinese leadership to fulfil The China Dream, is wrong. It is for this reason that the testimony of the china challenge is looming large on China to cut the bud in the nip and prove its hard-gained legitimacy in the international order again.

Chinese narrative is given by Deng Xiaoping in 1989 of “Hide your strength, bide your time”, has been defenestrated by President Xi Jinping thinking that China would stand up to the challenges posed by its adversaries and that China would be able to change the world order on its terms.

But the question is, what this China challenge brings to the table for India? India’s intransigence to understand the China challenge even after the Doklam clashes of 2017 and reaching back to China through Wuhan and Mamallapuram spirit, is lurking in the shadow as a demon for India. However, the very fact that India is now ready for an issue-based alliance by defenestrating the archaic thinking of non-alliance  (the resurrection of Quad, Australia's inclusion into Malabar and rethinking of the Taiwan question), brings to the fore the changing diplomatic considerations of India. Further, India’s actions against the danger of Chinese 5G technology and Chinese mobile applications, shows the precedence of where India will be moving in the future. But could we be able to capture the rise of China by these actions? Not. India needs to be an economic powerhouse to leverage its position and increase its bargaining power in the world. For that to manifest, India needs more (not less) closer integration with the world for its developmental needs and its apprehensions for openness are then to be get rid of by analyzing the cost and benefits of it in the medium to longer-term. China has been able to stand till yet is only due to the fact of the economic leverage it has, not due to its military robustness, and that should be taken into consideration to make any future decisions.

Will the new Biden administration help India for that matter is still hard to tell, but the reiteration of Biden and his Secretary of State Antony Blinken about India’s importance in the administration’s foreign policy provides hope. The reality is wide open in front of India to recalibrate its priorities and own up to the challenge because sooner or later there might again be a new Doklam or Pangong Tso moment in the offing for India.

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This article got republished in the Eastern Herald.

 

Will it be a final nail in the coffin of a Failing State?

 

            Image source: Reuters

The only word which can define the trajectory of the year 2020 is “turmoil”. From the fissures, it has created and the changes which the world has undergone, the year 2020 is considered a global mess. While the major flashpoints of this year consist COVID virus and fragmentation of the ideas like globalization and multilateralism, it has affected the domestic politics of many countries as well. Though the US has caught much attention of the pundits, Pakistan, which often looks as the bystander in the global political arena apart from matters about India, has caught the attention of analysts for many reasons. 

As the saying goes for Pakistan that” Pakistan is not a state but a military state” or "Pakistan is a state within a state", where the Establishment, a common term for the Pakistani Army and the ISI combined, rules the country under the guise of a Democratic nation ruled by a civilian government. In its independent history of 73 years, it has been ruled for 30 years by military dictators. What is more, the idea of Islamism and linking religion to extremist thoughts, are some of the common ideas prevailing in Pakistan. All this is amalgamating to be a perfect recipe of mayhem, which we know today as modern-day Pakistan. 

As the saying goes for Pakistan that” Pakistan is not a state but a military state” or "Pakistan is a state within a state"

 

Whilst facing an economic crisis, it is now facing a political crisis. The incumbent Prime Minister Imran Khan is in a precarious situation when confronted by the movement started by 11 opposing political parties popularly called the Pakistan Democratic Movement, led by Maulana Fazal-ul-Rehman of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam. Not just this, the negligence of PM Imran Khan has brought two major rival parties Pakistan’s People Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) to form a coalition against him. 

However, this is not the thing that has intrigued many, but the discourse of this movement is directly challenging the legitimacy of the Establishment in Pakistan. In the inaugural session of Gujranwala, the former PM Nawaz Sharif, through a virtual video-link from London, accused the Army of bringing down his government and helping Imran Khan assent to power. Whilst the history of contestation between Military and civilian government in Pakistan is long, this time it has outshone others because the coalition is building on the same narrative and people are supporting this zealously in the time of contagious virus. 

Which started as the wave of protest, now has turned into a movement, covering four rallies of Gujranwala on Oct 16, Karachi on Oct 18, Quetta on Oct 25, and Peshawar on Nov 22, with 3 more in line, and finally concluding this long walk with a march in Islamabad in Jan 2021. However, fearing this power building up, Imran khan who has achieved an epithet of a “Puppet Prime Minister” by the opposition, quelled the protest by detaining 31 people including PPP chief Ali Qasim Gilani. 

Now, this domestic political turmoil will further exacerbate the position of Pakistan which is currently also facing the crisis of identity in global politics. Pakistan is at the losing end due to continuous terrorist activities and its grey-listing by terror watchdog FATF, as well as its failed attempt to taint the picture of India with the help of its friends like Turkey and Malaysia while irking the Saudis and the Emiratis. Further, the inception of Joe Biden as the President-elect of the US, who will continue to pull out troops from Afghanistan given the domestic discourse of the US, will decrease the bargaining power of Pakistan. 

The inception of Joe Biden as the President-elect of the US, who will continue to pull out troops from Afghanistan given the domestic discourse of the US, will further decrease the bargaining power of Pakistan. 

Moreover, the real power bloc of Pakistan, the Establishment, is facing the crisis of legitimacy on the soil which it has been ruling since the independence of Pakistan. Qamar Javed Bajwa, COAS of Pakistani Army, who knows this very fact that this movement has the force to wither away his stronghold on Pakistan, is trying to assuage the opposition leaders to bring down the momentum of this movement and settle the matter behind the doors. With the dichotomy of retaining his clown in the face of Imran Khan on one hand and protecting his power on the other, the future of Pakistan looks very bleak in hands of those who do not understand the need of the common people of Pakistan.

The real sufferer in this power struggle is again the people of Pakistan, fighting the wave of Coronavirus as well as facing their fate with a battered economy, who are well aware of the nature of Democracy and politics of Pakistan. With their apprehensions against the Chinese in their motherland and the increasing Islamic fundamentalists, they have two options, either to pray for their bright future whilst sitting with this hope or to stand up and fight for bringing about a radical change in their society. They have chosen the Second option. This political struggle might change the fate of the people of Pakistan in the future to come, but will the Establishment concede to this demand, only time will tell.

 

  

 

A Paradigm shift in the Indian foreign policy

  

When Samuel P. Huntington propounded the theory of “Clash of Civilizations” in 1996 he was beyond any doubt that post-cold war battles would be fought between cultures and societies, least he would have anticipated was that the 21st century will change this narrative where the self-interest of leaders prevails and usurp the ideological and cultural battles. The India-China border is one of the many examples of how the self-interest of leaders can overrule other matters. The two Asian giants are currently in a very strained phase of their bilateral relations with the possibility of long-haul in resolving the matters and are vying to make the other agree to the status-quo based on their perceptions. India, which wants to restore the status quo ante of April is being confronted with China, which on the other hand wants to persist on the current positions and nibble away the territory by pressurizing India. 

Whilst, situations in the Himalayan region have changed considerably, the same has happened in the policy rooms of New Delhi. Indian foreign policy has undergone a subtle but much-needed shift marking it as a complete overhaul, for countering the current tumultuousness. Two current trends have emerged to the fore in recent times which signifies this shift.

 

The increasing salience of Neighborhood first policy

India's neighbourhood first policy was first lamented by PM Narendra Modi after assuming office in 2014. Invitees to his sworn-in ceremony were the leaders of SAARC countries, which showed the strategic necessity of India to work in the neighbourhood. It started with much enthusiasm in the initial years but lost its fervour with time. Long-agreed investment projects and bilateral agreements became just a piece of paper instead of the work on the ground. As the political situation of the neighbouring countries changed with time, so does their perceptions. The emergence of Beijing's cheque-book diplomacy coupled with New Delhi’s lax response to the growing needs of its neighbours provided an alternative of New Delhi to these countries and accentuates this process further. However, things have changed now.

As the Pandemic engulfed the region, India became the first country to gauge the momentum and extend its hands for helping the countries by exporting important medicines and essential goods, establishing its presence as a credible actor on the world stage.

India's recent personal interaction through EAM Dr S. Jaishankar in the sixth round of the India-Bangladesh foreign minister's consultative meeting gives a hint of New Delhi's growing outreach to Dhaka at a time of growing bonhomie of the latter with Beijing. The time for the meet seems to be perfect with India and Bangladesh both celebrating a golden jubilee of the liberation war of Bangladesh. When Indian foreign secretary Harsh V. Shringla and COAS Gen. MM Naravane visited Myanmar, the move is construed to improve bilateral relations. New Delhi understands the salience of Naypyidaw at a time when the Naga-peace deal is on the verge of collapsing and is trying to do its best for getting assurances from Naypyidaw given that it is not just a strategic ally of New Delhi due to its geography but the very state which can guarantee peace in the N-E states of India.

Nepal, which criticized India for its hold on the disputed territories, is now being assuaged as a virtual meeting was held between the Indian Ambassador to Nepal Vinay Mohan Kwatra and Nepal's foreign secretary Shankar Das Bairagi, to discuss the matter of disputed territories. And the visit of Indian COAS Gen MM Narvane to Nepal also hints toward New Delhi’s continuous play of balancing the act. Extension of $400 million currency swap facility to Colombo coupled with exports of important medicines to fight the Pandemic and an $18 million line of credit facility to the Maldives for the extension of fishing infrastructure, the recent $500 million assistance for developing a 6.7 km sea bridge connecting Male and Thilafushi, with a post-bridge $250 million budget-support and $800 million airport expansion, are some of the examples of growing emphasis of neighbouring counties in the statecraft of New Delhi.

When AEM Dr S. Jaishankar addressed the intra-Afghan peace process, virtually, and reiterated India's stance on the Afghan-led, Afghan-owned, Afghan-controlled peace process, he was hinting at India's long-held position. But what went unaddressed was India's urge to address a summit wherein the Taliban is a legitimate actor. Reading between the lines, the growing footprints of Islamabad and Beijing in the Afghan process gave an impetus to this process, wherein India is drawing a roadmap and changing its policy towards engaging with a non-state actor I.e. the Taliban.

Equally important is to look at countries like Seychelles and Mauritius, where Indian assistance through "Mission Sagar" helped to foster deep relations. And New Delhi's outreach to Thimphu and assurances of a continuous flow of medical and essential goods in times of need marks the way India has handled its historical ties with Bhutan.

 

 The resurrection of the Quad

The idea of Quad first came emerged in the year 2004 with the onset of a Tsunami in the S-E and

S-Asian countries and a huge cry for humanitarian support, which was jointly provided by India, Japan, The US and Australia. The capabilities of India, however, were a shock to many, and thus started a quest to form a mini-lateral grouping for securing the disaster management capabilities in the Asia-Pacific region.

When Shinzo Abe visited New Delhi on his first bilateral visit, his speech on the 'Confluence of two seas' in the Indian Parliament- taking the cue from the book "Confluence of Two Seas" of Dara Sikoh, a Mughal prince - wherein he pointed out the growing influence of the Asian region and the connection between Indian and the Pacific Ocean in terms of connectivity, sharing of goods, the flow of capital, knowledge, ideas and people. His speech drew a line in the sand when he pointed out the need for joining forces by like-minded countries to secure the future of the region.

Perhaps the initial years of Quad passed in apprehensiveness and ambivalence of its member states who did not want to rattle China at that moment, soon with growing Chinese hedging, what started as an ambiguous idea of a HADR (Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief) coalition starts taking shape of a mini-lateral organization with a military hue. India, whilst acknowledging the need for change, struck in the cobweb of balancing the act and assuaging China’s fears. When PM Narendra Modi addressed the Shangri La Dialogue of 2018, his message of SAGAR (Security and growth for all in the region) hinted towards Beijing of New Delhi's assurance of not joining any Bandwagon led by the US. Interestingly, China has always faced dichotomy vis-a-vis Quad, where it mocked it as an informal and faceless organization on the one hand, inertly it felt apprehensive of its structure and its collusion with the geographical and strategic reach of China, on the other. 

Whilst the Quad has always been construed as an arrangement to balance out China in the strategic circles of New Delhi, that thing has never been materialized. However, as a more assertive China poses challenges to the existing world order, the salience of Quad has come into question. India’s official invitation to Australia to join Malabar naval exercise has made things clear, whilst India’s willingness to sign last out of the four foundational agreements with the US, the Basic Exchange and cooperation agreement (BECA) gives more substance to this speculation. As EAM Dr S. Jaishankar attended the Quad meet held in Tokyo and for the first time used the term " a rule-based world-order" and India's outright support to it, this shows a change in attitude towards Quad and the growing pertinence of this very mini-lateral security grouping in India's foreign policy in managing China, which until now has been overlooked.

 

Conclusion 

 When Ashley Tellis said that “Sino-Indian relations can never go back to the old normal. They will reset with greater competitiveness and in ways that neither country had intended at the beginning of the crisis.”, he was referring to how a small nudge can escalate the differences that will be irreparable. Until now India has tried to balance out multiple fronts at the same time, but now the situation has changed, with the growing emphasis on neighbourhood and institutionalization of the Quad. Bandwagoning will be a possible word in the Indian foreign policy and this compelling force got a boost with a belligerent China along the LAC. As India became cognizant of the looming China challenge, the lack of hard-power and economic power has compelled India to turn towards a soft-power approach. This has culminated in India's old approach of apprehensive diplomacy- by defining strategic autonomy and non-alignment- to more proactive diplomacy of self-interest and threat perception, which is now realigning New Delhi’s choices with the facts on the ground.

Whilst the situations on the ground aren't clear yet, one thing which becomes clear is that the year 2020 marks an important change in the contours of Indian diplomacy vis-a-vis China in the right direction and possibly at a right time.