The news of the Quadrilateral security dialogue between India, Japan, Australia and the US, to
be held virtually this month has reinvigorated the security environment of the
Indo-Pacific region. While the new Biden administration, at the helm, in the US has decreed its continuance with Trump’s China policy of pressurizing, sending red
signals to China, the picture in the Himalayas is rather
ameliorating with the two Asian giants currently disengaging along the LAC.
However, these new developments in the security apparatus of the Indo-Pacific have
sent two broad inter-related signals which need to be considered when looking at the relationship
between the trio of India-China-the US in global politics.
The first signal is a concrete policy direction of New Delhi. The China challenge of India has cemented the view, often neglected in the military and policy circles, of China, is a major threat to Indian aspirations at the regional as well as at the global level. In calculating policy options at hand with New Delhi, policymakers find a defunct organization (Quad) to deal with Beijing. Since then, the mindset of dousing the fire of apprehension among the minds of the policymakers of Beijing and placating Beijing while denouncing the US’s embrace of India has been defenestrated and actions on the ground have been taken to save the domestic as well as the global interest of New Delhi, the cases of banning Chinese apps to decouple from the Chinese economy and swiftly moving with the Quad are some cases in point. Since the disengagement process is happening, the official view among the politburo of CPC (Communist Party of China) is that India will backtrack from this Quad initiative and again switch to the old method of idealist diplomacy vis-à-vis China. This could be gauge through what Wang Yi, State chancellor and foreign minister of China, said after talking to EAM Dr S. Jaishankar while the disengagement is in the process along the LAC that boundary disputes are historic problems and they do not show the full picture of India-China relations, signalling to hit an optimistic note of back to business approach with New Delhi. However, these optimist notes have been watered-down by New Delhi when it showcased to hedge its bet on the Quad despite a conciliatory approach by China along the LAC, the same was seen during the Modi-Biden phone call. The question is, what it might entail, with these developments, for China?
The official view among the politburo of CPC (Communist Party of China) is that India will backtrack from this Quad initiative and again switch to the old method of idealist diplomacy vis-à-vis China
The fact that India-China relations are at an irreparable juncture needs further scrutiny, but the direction to Indian foreign policy has, more or less, been defined with the border incursions along the LAC. Further, the Indo-Pak agreement of adhering to the ceasefire pact, though far-fetching, has given some credence to bolstering Indian foreign policy choices which have led to its adversary to give it some way at the global level. That perception of India defenestrating the Quad and US’s alliance after disengagement has dissipated, in Wang Yi’s eulogy, like the seafoam. India’s perseverance at the borders has sent a signal to Beijing that New Delhi has not budged and will not do so in the future. This means that China has limited options vis-à-vis India and its bargaining power has been constrained.
Connected to the first
signal is the second signal, which begs us to look inside the domestic politics
of Beijing, which portrays Beijing’s acceptance of the challenge it faces. While
unveiling the 14th five-year plan, President Xi Jinping enunciated the idea of “Dual Circulation Policy”, which in layman terms means “Aatmanirbhar
China”, which, in Xi’s thinking, is an important step to warding-off external
threats from some nations, coercing and bullying China, by making China
self-reliant on domestic markets while concomitantly making the world more dependent
on China through technological innovation. Once the wheel of
dual-circulation will start moving, it will, according to official thinking,
make the Chinese economy more resilient and will secure Chinese domestic as well as global interests. This policy should be looked at keeping in mind the hindsight
of global politics and the great power competition between the US and China.
The official thinking in Beijing is that there is an imminent danger from Washington
and New Delhi and Quad partners are working as a catalyst to this danger, which
needs to be taken care of. The best and the most effective way to do this could be making our house more resilient to external threats while making
the adversary more vulnerable (read dependent). Owing to its limited options
this policy seems more viable in the present scenario for Beijing, and should
it be successful, it could turn the table around.
The official thinking in Beijing is that there is an imminent danger from Washington and New Delhi and Quad partners are working as a catalyst to this danger, which needs to be taken care of. The best and the most effective way to do that could be making our house more resilient to external threats while making the adversary more vulnerable (read dependent)
Keeping both of
these broad signals in mind, one thing which might be construed is that Beijing is accepting
the threat emanating out of the US and the Quad. Whatever it says, about the optimism it has over the new Biden administration’s working with China or counting on New Delhi to be
back in business with China, is a veneer to cloak the inner fear, or say the
biggest fear, of a coalition being formed against Beijing. The trio of
India-China-the US will see a lot of string-pulling given the fact that lines
have been drawn on the sand to send out a red signal to the adversary either to
budge or face consequences. The decision to move forward with the Quad by the member
countries, despite pressure ratcheting down from Beijing and no lurking Chinese danger in the foreseeable future, is one such signal which is
out and loud. Now it remains interesting to be seen how Beijing
will react to it in the times to come.
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This article was originally published in The Eastern Herald.
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