Dragon's dynamics- A well thought-out move?

The current border skirmishes along LAC (Line of Actual Control) reported in Eastern Ladakh sector and Northern Sikkim, injuring a dozen of soldiers in physical clashes, followed by increased troop positioning and increased boat-patrolling by PLA in Galwan River valley is a worrying trend for India.

This all amid a time when India is still struggling to contain the COVID Pandemic, all these incidents taking place seems insensitive now. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian stated: “Chinese border troops have always been upholding peace and tranquility along our border areas. China and India stay in close communication and coordination concerning our border affairs within existing channels".  The statements from The COAS Gen. M M Naravane said, "There were two incidents at Eastern Ladakh and North Sikkim where aggressive behaviour by both sides resulted in minor injuries to troops post which both sides disengaged after dialogue and interaction at local level", both these statements helped to downplay the flare-up in the current situation.

An unprecedented Act?

The disputes between Indian military and PLA (People's Liberation Army) on border areas of LAC has been the issue since the past, but the recent development on the border is different from what we have seen in the past, where in the past the tensions used to de-escalate after the meetings by local military leaders, this time however, the chinese troops are alleged to build camps near Galwan Valley with increased boat patrols in Galwan river, with no sign of abatement even after the continuous meetings between military leaders of both sides. Equally new is the vociferous act by PLA and the frequency with which these incidents happened.

 Another unprecedented act is the silence of Chinese media and Chinese officials who are adopting a Silence Diplomacy, a rare show, on this issue unlike the Doklam Crisis where daily on-ground reporting was used to uplift the sentiments of the local population against India. This time, it is different with everything happening silently and with more force.

The Reasons for Dispute

China seems to be upping the ante against India. What can be the possible reasons behind it, is it a perception of boundary problem, or is it problem of taking away of special status from J&K by The GOI, or is it the recent road development by India on the Indian side of LAC, or is it the move to draw a red line for India by China over India's changing state by supporting the Taiwan issue and an independent investigation into the origin of the Pandemic. There are several possibilities one can think of, and several analysts and experts are offering different perceptions in this regard.

India and China have a real issue of perception of boundaries, what game theorists refer to as the "Commitment problem." In game theory, a commitment problem arises when two actors would be better off in the present by committing themselves to a cooperative relationship in the future. But, if the actors know that they will prefer to renege on their agreement in the future, the benefits of cooperation in the present cannot be realized, and even a mutually beneficial agreement cannot be struck. Simply put, if "Rising" India assumes that her material power and leverage vis-a-vis China is likely to improve, India has no incentive on accepting a China's "benign hegemony" and a negotiated settlement at a time when India cannot realise the advantage of this increased leverage. This is also true in China's case, with an aspiration of future "Global power", China considers to be getting more out of India in the future. A status quo agreement that seeks to formalize the existing LAC becomes difficult to accept.

Now to understand why it is happening on Indian borders, we also have to look at the development in Chinese politics. Recently the 13th National People's Congress (NPC) and 3rd session of 13th China People's Political consultative Congress  (CPPCC) have concluded, which are considered to be the biggest events for the political class in China. The CCP (Chinese Communist Party) who is under severe criticism from Chinese citizens due to the Economic crisis and the handling of COVID, has opted a strategy to flex its muscles in this time to strengthen its position. The simmering tension inside CCP has made Mr. Xi do the things with alacrity and whenever an autocratic regime finds itself in danger of coup or oust, it acts vociferously inside and outside, to strengthen its position, that is what we are now seeing from Mr. Jinping's side.

Another area to look upon is recent development in global politics, where allegations on China's role in the contagion (COVID) has strengthened worldwide, which has prompted China to look for ways to shut the voices, be it sanctioning Australia or drawing red lines for India through border dispute or Employing the show of Power Politics in the South China Sea to shut the voices in neighbouring states. The issue of Taiwan's inclusion into WHO and the increasing voice against Chinese action in Hongkong (where PRC has recently passed a National security bill taking away the sovereignty of Hongkong), are the issues which China has perceived as an attack to her One-China policy, which prompted China to act violently.

The recent development of Road (DSDBO) on the India side of LAC upto Galwan Valley is something which China wants India to avoid. China has good infrastructure near Border areas, but this is not the case for India, however, India has made strides in the recent past. The latest skirmishes on LAC is an excuse China is giving for her actions which is a red sign from Chinese side to India. Here, China is opting for a Pakistani strategy of blaming India for escalations on borders and justifying her actions against India.

All these amalgamate to make the current issue more serious. Now looking behind closed doors, what we don't know is the big aspirations of current Chinese leader Mr. Jinping, to be the best leader in the Chinese history vis-a-vis his predecessors, for that what he needs is a powerful regime both Politically and Economically, which can only be consolidated when CCP looks powerful worldwide and at home, which Mr. Jinping is trying to do through coercion.

Wuhan spirit- A dead concept?

Now what about the Wuhan spirit which helped India and China to de-escalate the tensions in the Doklam area. India and China have signed several agreements, including the Agreement on the Maintenance of Peace and Tranquillity along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China Border Areas (September 1993), the Agreement on Confidence Building Measures in the Military Field along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China Border Areas (November 1996), and most recently, the Border Defence Cooperation Agreement (2013), none of which appear so far to have helped in the current tensions.

One must question the efficacy of the Wuhan Spirit, that is it really in the Indian interest now, seeing the current Chinese aggression. To answer this, We must also know the fact that Wuhan Spirit, as it is pronounced, was a measure to put-down the pressure during the Doklam crisis, which is very much different from the current situation. We must not get diverged from the fact that the current game of PLA is a long drawn strategy of PRC to capture its lost territory by small and decisive steps be it the Tibetisation of Indian Himalayas or circling India through String of pearls, every action in Chinese book has a hidden meaning and a long-term plan. Wuhan spirit is a hollow agreement by China to show the willingness to work for resolving border issues, which doesn't reap any results in that direction, so relying on Wuhan spirit is a fallacy today.

The Road Ahead for India

The current situation is somewhat a fait accompli for India if China moves ahead by building more checkposts, then India will have two ways to confront the situation, either face the Chinese face-to-face and escalate the situation, or back-off, same as what Chinese had during the Doklam Crisis. They did back-off, but is it feasible for India.

In Diplomacy, Patience is mostly a virtue, until it is not.

The current situation doesn't support a backing-off option and a patient approach, India needs to confront the situation with the same force as China, to send a message, at the same time increasing diplomatic pressure through forging relationships with like-minded countries is what is in the best interest of India today. 

A Carnegie report highlights, the best way to guarantee “peace and tranquility” on the Sino-Indian border is to focus on military-to-military communication, which would “allow the two sides to immediately clarify any relevant issues at a more senior directive level.” Also building a military deterrence capability to reduce any future possible Chinese provocations on borders is an imperative for India today.

Conclusion

The current situation does not allow China to go on for an all-out war with India, because it will cost them Economically as well as Politically, which they cannot bear. The current geopolitical air is on the Indian side with a strengthening anti-Chinese narrative , so India is in a lead position vis-a-vis China.

The need of the hour is to de-escalate the tensions on LAC and focus on the health and Economic crises prevailing throughout the World. As Henry A. Kissinger once said,

" No foreign policy- No matter how ingenious it is- has any chance of success if it is born in The Minds of a few and carried in the Hearts of none"

The current Chinese actions fits exactly into these words. Unless the Chinese leadership considers how flawed the time they have chosen for these actions without considering its consequences, they will continue to face a dead-hole situation, from which there is no coming back.

The Taiwan dilemma of India

Taiwan, also known as Republic of China(ROC), a much smaller country than most of the countries around the world, became a torch-bearer to the world in the fight against the Pandemic (COVID-19). Till date, Taiwan has reported 440 cases of SARS-CoV2 with only 7 fatalities, all of this with a population of 23.8 million. It has not reported even a single local case for more than a month and is now actively engaged with the countries around the world in helping them to mitigate the impact of COVID. Its case to be a sovereign and independent country in the world-order has been bolstered by its success and help it has provided, against the virus. Recently, the US with countries like the UK, Germany, Australia and many others, have mulled the case of  Taiwan to includeTaiwan into the virtual meeting of the World Health Assembly (executive decision making body of WHO) to be held on 18-19 May, 2020 which attracted criticism from Beijing.

HISTORY OF CONTESTATION

China or People's Republic of China(PRC) considers Taiwan as a part of its territory or as one of its Province, which is vehemently opposed by Taiwan. This contention dates back to the era of the 20th century in the year 1927, when Chinese Civil war started between Kuomintang (founding party of ROC) and Communist party of China (CPC). After the end of the war in 1955, CPC won the mainland China and proclaimed it as People's Republic of China(PRC). The government of ROC fled back in 1945 to a territory given to it by Japan, now called Taiwan. The handing of  the territory(Taiwan) by Japan comes into question when neither the PRC nor the ROC was invited in signing of the Treaty of Peace with Japan, 1951 which left the issue of legal status of Taiwan disputed and in ambiguity.

Since then the struggle continues, which got exacerbated in the year 1971, when China won the seat in UNSC under the name of China and expelled the name Republic of China (ROC). From then onwards Taiwan is referred to as Taiwan,China in the international arena.

CURRENT FISSURE

With the world perplexed to fight the Contagion, Taiwan has emerged out of it strongly and has been helping the countries around the World by sending Medical equipment, continuous sharing of knowledge and working in tandem with them. With growing suspicion against Chinese handling of the virus, its current showcasing of Power-Politics and its employing of Soft power Diplomacy by sending medical supplies and helping through money in the form of debts mainly to gain brownie points in the world-order, these activities of China have increased the value of Taiwan as an independent partner to help countries in containing this Virus. 

US President Donald Trump at a White House news conference. 

The way China locked-down its citizens through coercion, it's late sharing of information to the world, and it's continuous efforts of employing Social media to change the narrative has increased the alienations of the world against China , and helped in bolstering the narrative of Democracy V/S Authoritarianism, which is being referred to by some as start of Cold War 2.0 between China and The US. Taiwan here emerges as an ally of The US to fight against China and the Virus hand-in-hand due to which The US passed TAIPEI Act to increase the scope of relationship between The US and Taiwan, and also urged others to do the same . The case of Taiwan's presence in a virtual meeting of the WHA(World Health Assembly) has been advocated by countries like The US, The UK, Germany, Japan, France, Australia, Canada and New Zealand, and much has been changed in the international arena in the current scenario due to this. And recently the EU has also issued a statement saying it is working with Taiwanese government's Academia Sinica to develop a rapid test. Also, in a rare move EC leader Ursula Von der Leyen has praised Taiwan for donating millions of masks to help the bloc battle the coronavirus pandemic. All this has worked like a trigger for Beijing, who is continuously telling everyone to stay away from forging diplomatic relations with Taiwan without its permission and warned Taipei that it will not allow them to attend meeting of the WHA unless they accepts One-China Policy.

DILEMMA AHEAD OF INDIA

Taiwan has a contentious political status in the world-order with only 14 out of 193 countries of The UN having formal and diplomatic relationship with Taiwan. India is one of those countries having no formal ties with Taiwan and which is currently struggling to get out of the clutches of Contagion, and has founded itself amidst a dilemma to continue with its old One China policy or to shift and ally itself with Taiwan. India since its independence has followed an optimistic policy on various issues ranging from Tibet to the South-China sea and Taiwan vis-a-vis China. 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of BRICS Summit.

Currently  committed to One-China policy , and with Beijing's continuous effort for trying to persuade India to follow its old One-China policy, has made it quite hard for New Delhi to balance the act between China and Taiwan.

THE WAY AHEAD

India has allied itself with China on various issues, and dealt with China moderately in the past on matters like Macmohan line, but to no avail. India has been unable to reap-out the benefits from the informal talks of Wuhan summit and then Mamallapuram summit, and has always been betrayed in one way or the other by China. India's foreign policy has changed with the changing times from non-alignment to strategic alignment to Issue-based alignment, and the decision on this very front needs to be taken with the current global trend in mind. 

Taiwan, which is a Democracy will surely be a good ally to India, which also shares the same values and ethos in its political and social realm. India, which is now struggling to contain the Pandemic  can get the benefits from the sharing of knowledge of best practices of Taiwan as well as technology sharing with the Taiwanese Healthcare system (One of the best in the world). And the same India which aspires to be Atmanirbhar Bharat and the next supply Chain of the world, will get the benefits from the IT sector, semiconductor technology and 5G technology sector of Taiwan(A main player in these technologies) for meeting its future technological needs. Also it is imperative for India to increase its trade relations with Taipei to explore new avenues for better relations with Taiwanese corporate sector. Further, sending ministers to Taiwan to improve cultural and commerce relationships will help. All this can be done by India without being Defensive in its foreign policy stance.

CONCLUSION

If India wants to ensure a better fight against the virus through sharing ideas and best practices in Indo-pacific region, incorporating Taiwan into the virtual meeting of the WHA would definitely be a welcoming move. Side-by-side It is also a high time for India to acknowledge and change its foreign policy vis-a-vis China, to forge new relationships to decrease its high-dependence on China in the new world-order of Post-COVID times because as Fareed Zakaria puts it ,

" Foreign policy is a matter of cost and benefits, not theology"

 And today it is in best interest of India to change its foreign policy vis-a-vis China to reap maximum benefits out of it for its future endeavours.