The news of an agreement being signed between India and China about the disengagement process along the LAC, as conveyed by MOD Rajnath Singh during the Rajya Sabha proceeding points to the consensus being formed after nine iterations of rigorous military-level talks held concomitantly with diplomatic-level talks under the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC). During his address, while highlighting India’s willingness for disengagement, the minister points out the illegal Chinese occupation in UT of Ladakh. The address of the minister talks about a phased, coordinated and verified disengagement process in the north and south bank of Lake Pangong Tso to achieve the status quo ante of April, with a period of 48 hours for the next round of talks over the remaining areas after the completion of disengagement from the Pangong lake area. While the agreement rekindled hopes of de-escalation between the two Asian giants, it has brought to the fore some questions over the Chinese intention to disengage from other areas (including Hot Springs, Galwan Valley and Depsang Plains) as well as the time chosen for this agreement.
This agreement has been agreed upon after nine months of eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation between India and China, resulting in brinkmanship and tumultuousness in global politics. With so much happening on the world stage, clashes between Indian and Chinese forces worked as a force multiplier to the problems faced by the world. This culminated in new coalitions being formed, new thresholds being set and new narratives being created. Perhaps, one thing which becomes clear at the end of the second decade of the 21st century is that everything related to the present world order is obsolete and renewing it is the only way forward.
This culminated in new coalitions being formed, new thresholds being set and new narratives being created
When the leader of the world, the US, was facing internal problems with a reticent attitude towards its globalist approach, the Chinese were the first to offer an alternative in asserting its credentials as a world agent for multilateralism. And it was at this juncture, when China used the salami-slicing tactic onto India and its neighbours (Taiwan and south-China sea neighbours) through border incursions and belligerence, viewing it as the most opportune time for making headways by pursuing active Defence tactics. However, India did provide a big hurdle to the Chinese ambitions, the fact remains that the repetitions of such actions along unresolved borders cast a death knell to the idea touted by a Chinese envoy to India, Sun Weidong of “Dragon and Elephant dancing together as the only right choice”. As India pushed China to negotiate after raising the ante by occupying the heights of the Kailash range and compelling Beijing to come to the negotiating table, successive talks did not bear any fruits.
The fact remains that the repetitions of such actions along unresolved borders cast a death knell to the idea touted by a Chinese envoy to India, Sun Weidong of “Dragon and Elephant dancing together as the only right choice”
While the agreement needs to be seen as a small step towards total disengagement, the fact remains that three flashpoints ( Depsang plains, Galwan valley and Hot Spring areas) remain to be resolved. A huge trust deficit remains between India and China which is hard to overcome unless some concrete steps are taken on the ground and going by the Chinese track record, one cannot trust China which claims to be the new poster child of multilateralism and rule-based order while doing the opposite on the ground. The question must also be raised over the timing of the Chinese intention to disengage, when the new President of the US, Joe Biden, has agreed to work closely towards a rule-based order, free and open Indo-pacific and on the Quad with India, while talking to India PM Narendra Modi on the one hand and raised issues over Xinjiang, Hongkong and belligerence of China in the Indo-Pacific, while talking to Chinese president Xi Jinping on the other. Perhaps, one thing which also needs to be taken into consideration is the WHO’s claim of the virus (COVID) not emanating from a Chinese lab, which has delegitimized the claim of COVID being a China virus and giving China room to spread new theories over its origin, which remained one of the main points of China asserting its claims along the LAC and elsewhere, to diffuse tensions simmering in its internal politics.
With all said and done, returning to the status quo of India-China bilateral relations is a far-fetched thing and repairing it might only happen with delineation of the LAC by both sides, through a collaborative and consensus-building exercise. What can be done in the short-term is put cost over every action that China will take in the future through capacity building measures at various levels from infrastructure to military-level to diplomatic-level. With a dearth of active measures taken by the Indian side to counter the looming threat of China, pursuing a sea-denial tactic strategy over the existing sea-capture strategy by the Indian Navy in the Indian Ocean with concomitantly embarking on a path of proactive military modernization is the way forward for India. With the lack of capital requirement for these measures, it is high time for India to have some serious considerations over the economic path that India should take in the future because the economy might always predate the military might.
It is high time for India to have some serious considerations over the economic path that India should take in the future because the economy might always predate the military might
Though contention remains between India and China over other areas, yet this agreement should be seen as a move in the right direction. Now it remains to be seen, what will happen in the time to come because we must always remember what Zhao Enlai said, “All diplomacy is a continuation of war by other means”, and this war, as espoused by Zhao, will be fierce and long-drawn between the two-Asian giants as they carve their path out in the post-COVID world.
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