RISE OF GREAT POWER POLITICS

With the world facing the crisis of COVID-19, which has infected more than 3 million people worldwide and with a fatality of over 2 lakhs, and where the future looks bleak for most of the people in the world. As the people are facing the reality of today, life has become slow, with economic activities coming to a grinding halt due to Lockdown measures implemented in most of the countries around the world. Elsewhere. The situation is different, with China coming out of the grip of COVID-19 from where the virus originated(Wuhan), and its forceful start of its economic activities, the game of great power politics has started with full force.

When the liberal thinkers around the world are talking about greater global cooperation in the time of this grave situation, something else is brewing in the mind of policymakers of a country. Recently, Vietnam reported sunking of one of its fishermen boats after it collapsed from a Chinese vessel. Here the world watched the great game of China. Also, the conduct of naval exercise in the South China Sea and the breach of airspace of neighbouring countries is now a normality for China's neighbours, this all amid a time when the whole world including The US is fighting an invisible enemy.

When the world is accusing China of its concealment of information from the world about COVID-19, China is working ferociously showing its Medical diplomacy by sending medical supplies, PPEs, testing kits, and even medical professionals around the world to get rid of the narrative set by The US president Donald Trump.

As Mr. Trump is getting vocal against China and WHO, for which Mr. Trump gave executive order to stop funding to WHO, the world witnessed the tormenting of global cooperation by a country considered as Global Power. With the void open and vacancy for global power, China's leadership comes into play, sending supplies, and working to cooperate with countries of the west as well as east, China has shown the way to take full advantage of an opportunity.

This opportunistic move has exacerbated the alienation between The US and China in short and China and the world as a whole, and the moves of China is now seen with suspicious eyes around the world. The statement of French President Emmanuel Macron that ," Something happened in China that we do not know about", and British foreign Secretary Dominic Raab suggesting to ask "hard question" from China that "why the virus has not been stopped earlier", are some cases in point.

Even the move of China to stop the UNSC meeting to discuss the COVID-19, by its foreign minister Wang Yi clearly saying that China will not let COVID-19 discussion in the UN meeting , has raised the question about the independence of global institutions like the UN. But more worrying is the role of WHO, which suggested the graveness of the virus lately, and was mainly provided by the input about the situation by China itself without its independent role, has raised questions on the efficacy and competence of WHO in handling once in a lifetime situations.

The current trends showcase the fault lines in global governance and the process of rise of great power politics in current global discourse. The current trend has also exposed the game being played by CCP to get the gains in global-order and the weak position of the US.

In this time of global crisis we need to ask a real question, "In whose benefit is it, to take advantage of the current situation, when the whole humankind is at stake?".  Today we are feeling the need of more independently working global institutions and the nations like India are now the only ray of hope for the world in a situation where on one hand a game of power politics is going and on the other vulnerabilities are showcased in open, to uphold the principle of globalisation and showcase the strength to secure global cooperation and to help the humankind reel out of this unprecedented situation.

BLACK GOLD- A FIGHT FOR DOMINANCE

 

Today, we see the prices of crude oil all around the world plunging, where it came down to a 18 years- low. This situation is nothing short of a nightmare for gulf countries, who are mainly dependent on oil and gas revenues and at the same time facing a problem of dealing with pandemic Covid-19.

The main reasons for this episode of fall in global demand of crude oil is due to situation of uncertainty due to Pandemic. Recently in a report released by Goldman sachs, it reported a possible decline of oil demand by upto 28 million bpd (barrels per day). With almost 1/3 of the world population under lockdown conditions, the disruption in trade, prevailing isolationism and diversion of resources to deal with the pandemic, the global demand of oil has plummeted. It is very much evident that the pandemic which has claimed more than 96000 lives and affected nearly the whole world has made the countries around the world to break globalised order, taking a protectionist stance until they win the waged war against this virus. 

 Also with fail talks between OPEC+ countries (Oil producing and exporting countries + RUSSIA and other non-OPEC nations) , there is an mismatch in supply-demand cycle, with more supply of oil than needed , global oil prices falls down. 

USA , the highest producer of crude oil globally, is trying to mediate between the countries to cut their oil production capacities , so that prices may go up. According a report by OPEC and IEA (International energy agency) this episode will decline 50-85% of oil and gas revenues in 2020 for developing OPEC counties. Oil producing countries are finding it hard to generate adeqaute revenues for waging war against global pandemic which is posing a threat to their econmic prudence.

India which is also battling against the virus, cheered with the falling global oil prices thinking it can cover its current account deficits, and which will provide a fiscal space for more resource mobilisation to fight against the pandemic. But is the situation really the way it seems, or are there some loopholes we cannot comprehend?

India and Gulf regions ties has two main segments:- 1) economic ties mainly consisting of imports from gulf countries, and 

2) Remittances by Indian diaspors living and working in gulf region.

For the first, it is clear that with global trade disruption, the investments and trade is on halt which will cost India in the longer run.

For the second, with these situations, Indian diaspora is facing the brunt with stalled works and no income, giving more taxes to gulf countries , and living a life in filthy camps with high densities. This has made situation more complex where they are trying to come to their motherland , possibly carrying the virus with them, which will strain already crippling health-sector of India. This thing shows that, India may be getting benefit of low crude oil prices in the short run, but in the long-run it is losing.


This episode has shown the insecurity among the global oil players, with everyone having their own set of agendas, for S.Arabia it is to occupy more market share, for Russia it is to take advantage politcally to defeat USA, and for US it is to curb the situation due to political elections ahead in the row. And the fight like this will not go for long, because these type of situations pose fiscal threat to countries mainly dependent on oil and gas revenues. Now the second round of talks between OPEC+ countries has been concluded on thrusday, with an agreement of cutting 10 millions bpd of production. When the world is facing a threat of global recession, the fight like this aggravates the situation further of economic threats, and this time is for fighting against the physical threat of pandemic , not to fight against each other.