It was 3rd January 2020, when the US's drone struck the Baghdad International Airport killing one of the most coveted men of Iran, Kasim Soleimani, the commander of Iran Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force, which has created a splinter effect throughout the gulf region. Iran, which was facing the heat due to the collapse of JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action), turned rogue against the US and in retaliation struck two Iraqi military facilities of the US, with no casualties. What started as minor bottlenecks from the Trump administration turned into brinkmanship that has infiltrated the Gulf region ushering in the new deals in the form of Abraham Accords between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, providing a thaw to the long-held animosity between Israel and the gulf.
However, things are not as simple as they look. The recent killing of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Farikhzade, allegedly by Israel, has turned the events to a point of no turning back. The recent legislation in the Iranian parliament regarding the breach of nuclear stockpile restrictions up to 20%, way up than what was agreed upon in JCPOA at 3.6%, has exacerbated the matters. Further, the feud happening in the Iranian politics between Ayatollah Khamenei supported by hard-liners and incumbent President Hassan Rouhani supported by moderates, with the looming elections to be held in mid-2021 has impeded the process of amelioration of ties with the US.
Whilst all that is happening is worth noting, one thing which could set the trajectory of the Gulf either to moderation of ties or a situation on the brink of war, is the Abraham accords. Two things are worth considering when we talk about these accords. First, this accord has emerged as a clear anti-Iranian accord to capture the rise of Iran in the Gulf region and has nudged both Israel and the Gulf to clear out the differences. Second, this accord is a face-saving deal by the Saudis and the Emiratis due to their losing position in the Muslim world with the projected resurrection of Turkey, as a neo-ottoman empire, trying to project itself as the leader of the disintegrating Muslim world.
The Abraham accords are pushing the gulf to be the major flashpoint for years to come at a time when the world is facing challenges on various fronts from an archaic world order unable to contain an assertive China to the worldwide spread of a pandemic. With the changing scenario in the gulf, speculations are rife over what might be the stance of India in the future, which has welcomed the accords but concomitantly supported the Palestinian cause.
Whilst pondering over this issue is imperative for Indian policymakers, four things need to be taken into consideration before taking a major step ahead:
First, India is facing a catch-22 situation whereby it cannot backtrack from its long-held position on Palestine and ignore its traditional-ally Iran on the one hand while supporting the accords on the other. However, given the numbers of the diaspora (approx. 31 million) working in the Gulf region and India's burgeoning military and technological partnership with Israel, New Delhi has no other choice but to recalibrate its options and make some hard choices.
Second, whilst the hype over traditional ties with Iran looks alluring, the alleged coalition forming between China, Iran, Turkey and Pakistan, coupled with a belligerent China poses a threat to Indian interests in the gulf region. The recent incident of Chinese intelligence agents colluding with Pakistani agents and the Taliban, and Chinese meddling in Nepalese politics are some cases in point. New Delhi has two options either to defenestrate the accords and become vulnerable or to work in the direction of standing up for its interests.
Third, India's ailing economy which has been facing headwinds due to COVID is in a need of a major overhaul. Whilst the west and other regions are attractive players to invest in the Indian economy, the gulf countries which are in the need of diversifying their economic interests away from hydrocarbons sees India as a major market and destination to invest in. Juxtaposing these two scenarios of debilitating Indian economy and investment-willing Gulf, the salience of the gulf for India is an undeniable fact considering Indian needs.
Fourth, the gulf could be a partner for India in fighting against the problem of terrorism which have been hampering Indian interest for a long-time. Further, Israel and the gulf's partnership could be a major force for India in capturing the growing influence of radicalisation in the Indian subcontinent on the behest of few countries like Pakistan, while making it a more peaceful and amicable place.
Given the fact that there is a change of administration in the US which could become a major force for further turbulence in the region, things are becoming more alarming with the way they are proceeding. However, one thing which ought to remain constant is that India needs to be cognizant of its interests in the region and its steps should align with its interests on the ground even if it will have to make some hard choices or reposition some of its long-held ideas.
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