HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF

Nowadays, the news of pandemic is covered by all the media houses, newspapers and other media types, but something dangerous is brewing in a region which lacks our attention for now and has been in news since 1979 with the start of USSR pre-occupation in it. This country is none other than AFGHANISTAN , which has been one of the most ravaged country around the globe. Recently, a news of attack on a sikh shrine(Gurudwara) was reported from Afghanistan , conducted by ISIL (Islamic state of iraq and the levant) , which took away 25 worshipper's lives.

It all started with USSR looking for new avenues in its neighbourhood to increase influence of communism in the cold-war era. With the revolution of 1979, a communist government was set up in Afghanistan , which was continued till 1989 after a re-coup with which a moderate government came into power. This time the warlords on Afghan soil started playing their game of war and it again came under a turmoil thereafter. Various militias set-up themselves in Afghanistan in which Taliban emerged as the main group.

US though was there on Afghanistan since the cold-war era, but its main pre-occuparion started after the 9/11 terrorist attack on twin towers , conducted by Taliban's close ally Al-Qaeda. Since then this game of global power playing in Afghan soil started which we saw in countries Vietnam, Iraq etc. From there, US has come a long way , lossing thousands of troops with no outcome at all. With the election coming nearway, US President Donald Trump , with his  political strategy we can say for gains in electoral results,  said to pull out US troops from a war which he himself consider a waste of American lives.

With the signing of US-Taliban peace deal , the Afghan conundrum has become more relevant . What we saw in the deal was a face-covering deal for US's safe exit from Afghanistan, after its massive defeat in the frontiers of the Country. The deal explicitly calls for pullying out troops from Afghanistan and still have no promise of a permanent ceasefire between The Taliban and Afghan security forces except for a non-violation truce of a ceasefir of 7 days between security forces and The Taliban, helping in the conduct of negotiations between Afghan government and The Taliban and clause for non-usage of Afghan soil by other extremist groups. What makes this deal more vulnerable to fail badly is the rift going on in the national politics between Afghan president Ashraf ghani and his cheif-executive officer Abdullah Abdullah.  All these situations conspires to make The Taliban a legitimate faction on Afghan soil , abandoning the Afghan government into chaos. This situation is excerbated more by the worldwide spreading of pandemic which has caught Afghanistan off-guard with its dwindling Healthcare system.

What is the current position of India on this deal and Afghanistan?
India has not shown any resistance to this deal as India's ambassador to Qatar P. kumaran , attended the signing of this deal but this does not mean India is agreeing on US's deal. India better know the consequences of this exit in the following fronts:-
1) The porous border with Afghanistan and Pakistan make India vulnerable , because if The Taliban comes into power another game of blood will start in S.Asian region mainly affecting the Kashmir region.
2) The investment of India in Chahbahar port is on the verge of being good for nothing , if The Taliban weilded power in Afghansitan, which will have consequences in terms of economics.
3) The ISI(Pakistan's secret agency) and The Taliban relation of teacher-patron , becomes a headache for India which provides Pakistan an upper hand in Afghanistan , through which it can negotiate on issues like KASHMIR on international front through The Taliban by pressurising United States.

India had never negotiated with any extremist group as it is against its ideological narrative, but the situation in Afghanistan is so grave because of non-state players like pakistan, china, Russia interfering, that it has now become a compulsion to talk with The Taliban. 

One lesson we can learn from this CONUNDRUM is , The repetition of US's behaviour on foreign lands to leave them when it has acquired its interests, in mid of a devastating situation , be it Vietnam war where Richard Nixon devised to leave Vietnam, or mordern day Nixon(DONALD TRUMP) to leave Afghansitan in-between a chaotic situation. And, if this group is not stopped from its activities in the time of global threat of pandemic, it surely will pursue its occupation more forcefully when the situation will change.

We don't know what will be the future of Afghanistan, but what we know is that if The Taliban comes into power , it will change the world-order by legitimizing this extremist group which in turn encourage others to occupy territories around the world for the same goal. The people of Afghanistan are fickle minded, they change position towards more powerful side, and the situation is not far, where people will shift side and declare The Taliban as their legitimate government if the situation continues the same. This situation will surely have devastating consequences for India in Economic, security and ideological terms, in short and for the world as a whole. Today, the terrorism has become a grave problem for this world and the time has come to acknowledge the saying of Howard zinn that "HOW CAN YOU HAVE A WAR ON TERRORISM WHEN WAR ITSELF IS A TERRORISM?" .

Rivalry in the time of pandemic

Novel coronavirus (Covid-19) , a pandemic which hit out the world with a blow has ditrupted world order  with a consequences of economic disruption which can turn out to be a Global Recession like the one we faced in 2008. Countries around the world are facing the challenge to cope with this problem but what stands in stark contrast to fighting this pandemic is the great game going on between US and China. After the trade war gets settled after a truce , the game is now about blaming for irresponsible act. There are continous efforts from US president Donald Trump to name this virus as a "Wuhan Virus" and in its counter China is retaliating against such comments by threatning and showing the hardship China faced due to this pandemic. We saw that US is pressurising, UNSC and WHO to rename this virus and hit out at China. 

This Virus which has hit the world in more than 190 countries, has made countries around the world to kneel, with reports of shortage of medical gears for healthcare workers , shortage of equipments and proper facility for quarantine , lack of cooperation among countries to fight this pandemic , and has made the world order to do anything but fight.

Today the world's two largest economies US and China are fighting to take the credit to prepare the possible vaccine to this pandemic , shows the hidden competition going on to take the credit and show the hegemony by being a world leader. China distributing mask and health equipments shows a trend of "mask diplomacy" in this era by persuading others through supplies and showing its humanitarian efforts to curb this problem. Also, reports are circulating of US contacting and bribing German firms to buy their advances for a possible vaccine, and China working secretly or may have developed, the vaccine. This all is amid , when Countries like Italy, Spain and other EU countries are caught off-guard and their healthcare system has failed to contain the spread of Virus. US itself, with now having largest no. of cases worldwide, has been a striking example that Rhetorics alone cannot do anything to contain a disease which we know nothing about.

India, though with a fragile healthcare sector, has taken some pro-active steps like- social distancing, increasing testing, creating awareness etc.  to contain this virus. But despite some positive efforts there is always a scope for improvement, which in case of India is very improtant. Reports of low level of testing is surfacing the media , that India's testing rate for suspected candidates is very low, also the shortage of ventilators and equipments as well as testing kits are there. What is needed is to solve the problems when we have time and take the follower's advantage to take lesson from others , lest we will be in the position in which the western world is right now. India can take the hint from the work of S.korea, to futher increase its infra in the healthcare area and increase the testing rate to detect the possible suspects before further spreading.

Apart from intra-national measures world needs international measures. The leadership of India to reach out at SAARC for possible solution to contain this virus is the measure in right direction. Taking the cue from this, G-20, and G-7 countries followed the suit to devise some strategy in this direction. 

What we know from this lesson in our era is that, our disaster diplomacy is not adeqaute for what is required at this point of time and this rivalry will lead us nowhere. So, what is the need of the hour, is to forget the Rivalry and protectionist stance in the time of pandemics , prepare for the worst, cooperate and help each other to face this disaster because  the aftermath of this wave is what we have to prepare for , while working simultaneously for curbing the effect of this pandemic .