The Question of the China challenge for India

  

The world which has undergone considerable change during the Pandemic from the way we used to interact to the way we think, has impacted the nation-states as an actor of international politics to use means that were ought to help these very nations in preventing any future wars. The World is facing a grave danger today, not of conventional wars, but unconventional wars through the means of economic threats and technology. The starkest example of these changes is the wave of anti-globalization around the world, which is present in the idea of “Us V/S They”, to fight the Pandemic. Whilst the virus is a global threat, the actions against it are local with minimum collaborations. The most legitimate actor who is the perpetrator of this growing global tumultuousness in the US, which has orchestrated an agenda against multilateralism, the same country that was once a poster-child of the multilateral and liberal order. Then there are actors like China, which are presenting a threat to this liberal order on one hand and trying to present an alternative to it on the other. To exacerbate the matters, the rise of one-upmanship among the world leaders helps us to discern the present situation.

Whilst as all these things are happening, one thing presents the answer to many of our questions regarding the change in world-order i.e., the 5th plenary session of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) which had hosted the top echelons of the CCP to discuss the 14th five-year plan (2021-25). Chinese President Xi Jinping while addressing the session reiterated the need for a self-sufficient China, an idea that didn’t match the multilateral narrative of China, to better deal with international situations which will make China economically powerful to be neglected and technologically powerful to be threatened. In his speech, Xi Jinping specifically recognized the challenge which the “Few Countries” pose to China and opined the idea of self-deterrence capabilities, which is an idea diverging from the past belief of a rising global-power to better deal with the conditions of interference by foreign powers in Chinese backyards. Further, the legitimacy of CCP was being upheld during the session by referring to the challenge which can only be curbed by CCP. Two things come out of this session, first, China is fully aware of the looming danger over the Chinese head about its alienation in the global economic order. And second, China is trying to change its options at hand to be better able to deal with the repercussion of its past actions.

Two things come out of this session, first, China is fully aware of the looming danger over the Chinese head about its alienation in the global economic order. And second, China is trying to change its options at hand to be better able to deal with the repercussion of its past actions.

Whilst the US bears the credit to escalate the matters, China is credited for its all-out agenda in exacerbating this problem. Chinese narrative proposed by Deng Xiaoping in 1989 of “Hide your strength, bide your time”, has been defenestrated by President Xi Jinping thinking that China would stand up to the challenges posed by its adversaries and that China would be able to change the world order on its terms. However, things that were imagined didn’t materialize. The global coalition which is forming against China, be it the resurrection of the Quad or the Clean network initiative by the US, points out one thing i.e., cognizance of the China challenge. Even the upcoming Biden administration, which might not be as staunch as the Trump administration was, recognized the need to curb this problem. Further, the clashes between Indian and Chinese forces along the LAC has furthered this feeling to stand up to the China challenge. In these hard times, we are seeing China trying to bring the temperature down a notch. China’s recognition of the imperatives of self-sufficiency and self-deterrence points out the fact that the time which had been chosen by the Chinese leadership to fulfil The China Dream, is wrong. It is for this reason that the testimony of the china challenge is looming large on China to cut the bud in the nip and prove its hard-gained legitimacy in the international order again.

Chinese narrative is given by Deng Xiaoping in 1989 of “Hide your strength, bide your time”, has been defenestrated by President Xi Jinping thinking that China would stand up to the challenges posed by its adversaries and that China would be able to change the world order on its terms.

But the question is, what this China challenge brings to the table for India? India’s intransigence to understand the China challenge even after the Doklam clashes of 2017 and reaching back to China through Wuhan and Mamallapuram spirit, is lurking in the shadow as a demon for India. However, the very fact that India is now ready for an issue-based alliance by defenestrating the archaic thinking of non-alliance  (the resurrection of Quad, Australia's inclusion into Malabar and rethinking of the Taiwan question), brings to the fore the changing diplomatic considerations of India. Further, India’s actions against the danger of Chinese 5G technology and Chinese mobile applications, shows the precedence of where India will be moving in the future. But could we be able to capture the rise of China by these actions? Not. India needs to be an economic powerhouse to leverage its position and increase its bargaining power in the world. For that to manifest, India needs more (not less) closer integration with the world for its developmental needs and its apprehensions for openness are then to be get rid of by analyzing the cost and benefits of it in the medium to longer-term. China has been able to stand till yet is only due to the fact of the economic leverage it has, not due to its military robustness, and that should be taken into consideration to make any future decisions.

Will the new Biden administration help India for that matter is still hard to tell, but the reiteration of Biden and his Secretary of State Antony Blinken about India’s importance in the administration’s foreign policy provides hope. The reality is wide open in front of India to recalibrate its priorities and own up to the challenge because sooner or later there might again be a new Doklam or Pangong Tso moment in the offing for India.

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This article got republished in the Eastern Herald.

 

Will it be a final nail in the coffin of a Failing State?

 

            Image source: Reuters

The only word which can define the trajectory of the year 2020 is “turmoil”. From the fissures, it has created and the changes which the world has undergone, the year 2020 is considered a global mess. While the major flashpoints of this year consist COVID virus and fragmentation of the ideas like globalization and multilateralism, it has affected the domestic politics of many countries as well. Though the US has caught much attention of the pundits, Pakistan, which often looks as the bystander in the global political arena apart from matters about India, has caught the attention of analysts for many reasons. 

As the saying goes for Pakistan that” Pakistan is not a state but a military state” or "Pakistan is a state within a state", where the Establishment, a common term for the Pakistani Army and the ISI combined, rules the country under the guise of a Democratic nation ruled by a civilian government. In its independent history of 73 years, it has been ruled for 30 years by military dictators. What is more, the idea of Islamism and linking religion to extremist thoughts, are some of the common ideas prevailing in Pakistan. All this is amalgamating to be a perfect recipe of mayhem, which we know today as modern-day Pakistan. 

As the saying goes for Pakistan that” Pakistan is not a state but a military state” or "Pakistan is a state within a state"

 

Whilst facing an economic crisis, it is now facing a political crisis. The incumbent Prime Minister Imran Khan is in a precarious situation when confronted by the movement started by 11 opposing political parties popularly called the Pakistan Democratic Movement, led by Maulana Fazal-ul-Rehman of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam. Not just this, the negligence of PM Imran Khan has brought two major rival parties Pakistan’s People Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) to form a coalition against him. 

However, this is not the thing that has intrigued many, but the discourse of this movement is directly challenging the legitimacy of the Establishment in Pakistan. In the inaugural session of Gujranwala, the former PM Nawaz Sharif, through a virtual video-link from London, accused the Army of bringing down his government and helping Imran Khan assent to power. Whilst the history of contestation between Military and civilian government in Pakistan is long, this time it has outshone others because the coalition is building on the same narrative and people are supporting this zealously in the time of contagious virus. 

Which started as the wave of protest, now has turned into a movement, covering four rallies of Gujranwala on Oct 16, Karachi on Oct 18, Quetta on Oct 25, and Peshawar on Nov 22, with 3 more in line, and finally concluding this long walk with a march in Islamabad in Jan 2021. However, fearing this power building up, Imran khan who has achieved an epithet of a “Puppet Prime Minister” by the opposition, quelled the protest by detaining 31 people including PPP chief Ali Qasim Gilani. 

Now, this domestic political turmoil will further exacerbate the position of Pakistan which is currently also facing the crisis of identity in global politics. Pakistan is at the losing end due to continuous terrorist activities and its grey-listing by terror watchdog FATF, as well as its failed attempt to taint the picture of India with the help of its friends like Turkey and Malaysia while irking the Saudis and the Emiratis. Further, the inception of Joe Biden as the President-elect of the US, who will continue to pull out troops from Afghanistan given the domestic discourse of the US, will decrease the bargaining power of Pakistan. 

The inception of Joe Biden as the President-elect of the US, who will continue to pull out troops from Afghanistan given the domestic discourse of the US, will further decrease the bargaining power of Pakistan. 

Moreover, the real power bloc of Pakistan, the Establishment, is facing the crisis of legitimacy on the soil which it has been ruling since the independence of Pakistan. Qamar Javed Bajwa, COAS of Pakistani Army, who knows this very fact that this movement has the force to wither away his stronghold on Pakistan, is trying to assuage the opposition leaders to bring down the momentum of this movement and settle the matter behind the doors. With the dichotomy of retaining his clown in the face of Imran Khan on one hand and protecting his power on the other, the future of Pakistan looks very bleak in hands of those who do not understand the need of the common people of Pakistan.

The real sufferer in this power struggle is again the people of Pakistan, fighting the wave of Coronavirus as well as facing their fate with a battered economy, who are well aware of the nature of Democracy and politics of Pakistan. With their apprehensions against the Chinese in their motherland and the increasing Islamic fundamentalists, they have two options, either to pray for their bright future whilst sitting with this hope or to stand up and fight for bringing about a radical change in their society. They have chosen the Second option. This political struggle might change the fate of the people of Pakistan in the future to come, but will the Establishment concede to this demand, only time will tell.