Will it be a final nail in the coffin of a Failing State?

 

            Image source: Reuters

The only word which can define the trajectory of the year 2020 is “turmoil”. From the fissures, it has created and the changes which the world has undergone, the year 2020 is considered a global mess. While the major flashpoints of this year consist COVID virus and fragmentation of the ideas like globalization and multilateralism, it has affected the domestic politics of many countries as well. Though the US has caught much attention of the pundits, Pakistan, which often looks as the bystander in the global political arena apart from matters about India, has caught the attention of analysts for many reasons. 

As the saying goes for Pakistan that” Pakistan is not a state but a military state” or "Pakistan is a state within a state", where the Establishment, a common term for the Pakistani Army and the ISI combined, rules the country under the guise of a Democratic nation ruled by a civilian government. In its independent history of 73 years, it has been ruled for 30 years by military dictators. What is more, the idea of Islamism and linking religion to extremist thoughts, are some of the common ideas prevailing in Pakistan. All this is amalgamating to be a perfect recipe of mayhem, which we know today as modern-day Pakistan. 

As the saying goes for Pakistan that” Pakistan is not a state but a military state” or "Pakistan is a state within a state"

 

Whilst facing an economic crisis, it is now facing a political crisis. The incumbent Prime Minister Imran Khan is in a precarious situation when confronted by the movement started by 11 opposing political parties popularly called the Pakistan Democratic Movement, led by Maulana Fazal-ul-Rehman of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam. Not just this, the negligence of PM Imran Khan has brought two major rival parties Pakistan’s People Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) to form a coalition against him. 

However, this is not the thing that has intrigued many, but the discourse of this movement is directly challenging the legitimacy of the Establishment in Pakistan. In the inaugural session of Gujranwala, the former PM Nawaz Sharif, through a virtual video-link from London, accused the Army of bringing down his government and helping Imran Khan assent to power. Whilst the history of contestation between Military and civilian government in Pakistan is long, this time it has outshone others because the coalition is building on the same narrative and people are supporting this zealously in the time of contagious virus. 

Which started as the wave of protest, now has turned into a movement, covering four rallies of Gujranwala on Oct 16, Karachi on Oct 18, Quetta on Oct 25, and Peshawar on Nov 22, with 3 more in line, and finally concluding this long walk with a march in Islamabad in Jan 2021. However, fearing this power building up, Imran khan who has achieved an epithet of a “Puppet Prime Minister” by the opposition, quelled the protest by detaining 31 people including PPP chief Ali Qasim Gilani. 

Now, this domestic political turmoil will further exacerbate the position of Pakistan which is currently also facing the crisis of identity in global politics. Pakistan is at the losing end due to continuous terrorist activities and its grey-listing by terror watchdog FATF, as well as its failed attempt to taint the picture of India with the help of its friends like Turkey and Malaysia while irking the Saudis and the Emiratis. Further, the inception of Joe Biden as the President-elect of the US, who will continue to pull out troops from Afghanistan given the domestic discourse of the US, will decrease the bargaining power of Pakistan. 

The inception of Joe Biden as the President-elect of the US, who will continue to pull out troops from Afghanistan given the domestic discourse of the US, will further decrease the bargaining power of Pakistan. 

Moreover, the real power bloc of Pakistan, the Establishment, is facing the crisis of legitimacy on the soil which it has been ruling since the independence of Pakistan. Qamar Javed Bajwa, COAS of Pakistani Army, who knows this very fact that this movement has the force to wither away his stronghold on Pakistan, is trying to assuage the opposition leaders to bring down the momentum of this movement and settle the matter behind the doors. With the dichotomy of retaining his clown in the face of Imran Khan on one hand and protecting his power on the other, the future of Pakistan looks very bleak in hands of those who do not understand the need of the common people of Pakistan.

The real sufferer in this power struggle is again the people of Pakistan, fighting the wave of Coronavirus as well as facing their fate with a battered economy, who are well aware of the nature of Democracy and politics of Pakistan. With their apprehensions against the Chinese in their motherland and the increasing Islamic fundamentalists, they have two options, either to pray for their bright future whilst sitting with this hope or to stand up and fight for bringing about a radical change in their society. They have chosen the Second option. This political struggle might change the fate of the people of Pakistan in the future to come, but will the Establishment concede to this demand, only time will tell.