The Triangular Geopolitics

 

As the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and NSA Jake Sullivan met their Chinese counterpart Wang Yi and Yang Jiechi in Anchorage, Alaska little did they expect was the chutzpah with which China would confront the US. When Yang Jiechi obliterated the US of its contradictions on moral high grounds and its irony to check in on other countries when its house itself is not in order, Chinese strategic commentators and experts termed it as the “rise of a confident China” and “a grand show of Chinese strength”. The moot point is, how has this backlash against the west being played out and what ramifications would it have to the relationship of two economic giants in an increasingly polarized world.

Since Biden emerged at the helm of the US, China was sending pacifist signals, initially, intending to ameliorate the relations, which were soon turned down by the new US administrations as it showed zeal to follow the footstep of its predecessor on issues vis-à-vis the Indo-pacific in general and China in particular. As Beijing sensed this, nationalistic rhetoric (Chinese boycott of foreign companies like H&M, Nike, Adidas etc.) and game of delegitimization (Propaganda through news and digital-media) started. This surge clashed with the centenary of the CCP in 2021, an increasingly important year for the party to showcase the growing, confident and prosperous Chinese nation without any fear under the command of the party, which started with a zealous attempt to change the narratives. As this confident China confronted with a bullying west, according to their perception, war of words ensued with backlash emanating out of different domains of the Chinese regime, a taste of which we got during the anchorage meeting.

Adding to that is the story of sanctions and cross-sanctions, with both parties using every resource under their dispensation to change the rule of the games and turning the tables. Agree or not, this reverberates with the shadow of cold war politics with a battle of supremacy turning into a battle between ideologies and propagandas, with the sole exception that the west is increasingly facing an adversary that has the economy to continuously serve the barrel of the gun and inflict punitive costs. When China shrug-off every move of the west which are aimed to malign its record on the human rights and the rule of law issue, while opening a new interpretation of these ideas and terms based on the existing political and historical context of the country, it is overtly trying to portray a parallel model of successful governance to the world. Be that as it may, one thing which one cannot overlook is that this parallel or alternative model has its own set of takers in some parts of the world, that is why Chinese hopes are not drowning under the burden of losing the limelight which had happened with the Soviet Union.

 This reverberates with the shadow of cold war politics with a battle of supremacy turning into a battle between ideologies and propagandas, with the sole exception that the west is increasingly facing an adversary that has the economy to continuously serve the barrel of the gun and inflict punitive costs.

What is interesting is the façade of grandeur which has been created by these events giving a moral high ground, in the perception of China, to the Chinese tradition vis-à-vis the west. This grandeur is what we saw during the COVID-19 pandemic, as China forayed and opened various fronts at the same time, at a time when some commentators think that it would lead to a demise of Beijing’s soft power. That certainly has not been manifested and this has been the main nudge behind the tactic which has been employed by the Chinese. At this crucial juncture, one might wonder but think, how it might affect the Indian aspirations and interests in the future and what course should India need to take to deal with future threats more efficiently.

As the Indian foreign policy has undergone a drastic change after the Galwan clash and friction at various points with the Chinese, options seem very limited with New Delhi. Adding to that, the growing expectation of the west on India is continuously clashing with the growing hue and cry among a few to adopt a policy of "strategic autonomy". Interestingly enough, the repercussions for India are more imminent with the rise of China and its alternative structure than for the west and taking cognizance of this, policy should be effective to deal with the emerging situations. With that in mind, India has to adopt a comprehensive strategy for both short and long-term objectives, as has been opined by China watchers like Gautam Bambawale, Vijay Kelkar et al., in a policy paper for Pune International Centre. The short-term policy must consist of alliances with like-minded countries to deal with the Chinese threat while the long-term policy must consist of forging a path to bolster the Indian economy and then using it to deal with China. As this game gets dirty and opaque, India has to steer clear of the policy oblivion state, with which it has been characterized when dealing with the Chinese in the past and should ride on the democratic credentials, often considered cliché in realist perspective, though useful enough to court others in its favour. Agree or not, the biggest challenge with India is its domestic policy and economic policy. Only when these get aligned with the diplomatic interest of India, should we get the desired result.

India has to adopt a comprehensive strategy for both short and long-term objectives. The short-term policy must consist of alliances with the like-minded country to deal with the Chinese threat while the long-term policy must consist of forging a path to bolster the Indian economy and then using it to deal with China

It is not only the rule of the game but also the whole game that is in the process of transformation, which has raised ambiguity as well as hopes. Never has the world faced so much tumultuousness as it has been facing due to COVID-19 and the growing rift between the two biggest powers of the world (the US and China), which poses a new set of challenges that can only be dealt with newly devised policies. Amid these tremors, it will remain interesting to see how New Delhi will adopt its policies vis-à-vis the US and China, in the times to come.