A Paradigm shift in the Indian foreign policy

  

When Samuel P. Huntington propounded the theory of “Clash of Civilizations” in 1996 he was beyond any doubt that post-cold war battles would be fought between cultures and societies, least he would have anticipated was that the 21st century will change this narrative where the self-interest of leaders prevails and usurp the ideological and cultural battles. The India-China border is one of the many examples of how the self-interest of leaders can overrule other matters. The two Asian giants are currently in a very strained phase of their bilateral relations with the possibility of long-haul in resolving the matters and are vying to make the other agree to the status-quo based on their perceptions. India, which wants to restore the status quo ante of April is being confronted with China, which on the other hand wants to persist on the current positions and nibble away the territory by pressurizing India. 

Whilst, situations in the Himalayan region have changed considerably, the same has happened in the policy rooms of New Delhi. Indian foreign policy has undergone a subtle but much-needed shift marking it as a complete overhaul, for countering the current tumultuousness. Two current trends have emerged to the fore in recent times which signifies this shift.

 

The increasing salience of Neighborhood first policy

India's neighbourhood first policy was first lamented by PM Narendra Modi after assuming office in 2014. Invitees to his sworn-in ceremony were the leaders of SAARC countries, which showed the strategic necessity of India to work in the neighbourhood. It started with much enthusiasm in the initial years but lost its fervour with time. Long-agreed investment projects and bilateral agreements became just a piece of paper instead of the work on the ground. As the political situation of the neighbouring countries changed with time, so does their perceptions. The emergence of Beijing's cheque-book diplomacy coupled with New Delhi’s lax response to the growing needs of its neighbours provided an alternative of New Delhi to these countries and accentuates this process further. However, things have changed now.

As the Pandemic engulfed the region, India became the first country to gauge the momentum and extend its hands for helping the countries by exporting important medicines and essential goods, establishing its presence as a credible actor on the world stage.

India's recent personal interaction through EAM Dr S. Jaishankar in the sixth round of the India-Bangladesh foreign minister's consultative meeting gives a hint of New Delhi's growing outreach to Dhaka at a time of growing bonhomie of the latter with Beijing. The time for the meet seems to be perfect with India and Bangladesh both celebrating a golden jubilee of the liberation war of Bangladesh. When Indian foreign secretary Harsh V. Shringla and COAS Gen. MM Naravane visited Myanmar, the move is construed to improve bilateral relations. New Delhi understands the salience of Naypyidaw at a time when the Naga-peace deal is on the verge of collapsing and is trying to do its best for getting assurances from Naypyidaw given that it is not just a strategic ally of New Delhi due to its geography but the very state which can guarantee peace in the N-E states of India.

Nepal, which criticized India for its hold on the disputed territories, is now being assuaged as a virtual meeting was held between the Indian Ambassador to Nepal Vinay Mohan Kwatra and Nepal's foreign secretary Shankar Das Bairagi, to discuss the matter of disputed territories. And the visit of Indian COAS Gen MM Narvane to Nepal also hints toward New Delhi’s continuous play of balancing the act. Extension of $400 million currency swap facility to Colombo coupled with exports of important medicines to fight the Pandemic and an $18 million line of credit facility to the Maldives for the extension of fishing infrastructure, the recent $500 million assistance for developing a 6.7 km sea bridge connecting Male and Thilafushi, with a post-bridge $250 million budget-support and $800 million airport expansion, are some of the examples of growing emphasis of neighbouring counties in the statecraft of New Delhi.

When AEM Dr S. Jaishankar addressed the intra-Afghan peace process, virtually, and reiterated India's stance on the Afghan-led, Afghan-owned, Afghan-controlled peace process, he was hinting at India's long-held position. But what went unaddressed was India's urge to address a summit wherein the Taliban is a legitimate actor. Reading between the lines, the growing footprints of Islamabad and Beijing in the Afghan process gave an impetus to this process, wherein India is drawing a roadmap and changing its policy towards engaging with a non-state actor I.e. the Taliban.

Equally important is to look at countries like Seychelles and Mauritius, where Indian assistance through "Mission Sagar" helped to foster deep relations. And New Delhi's outreach to Thimphu and assurances of a continuous flow of medical and essential goods in times of need marks the way India has handled its historical ties with Bhutan.

 

 The resurrection of the Quad

The idea of Quad first came emerged in the year 2004 with the onset of a Tsunami in the S-E and

S-Asian countries and a huge cry for humanitarian support, which was jointly provided by India, Japan, The US and Australia. The capabilities of India, however, were a shock to many, and thus started a quest to form a mini-lateral grouping for securing the disaster management capabilities in the Asia-Pacific region.

When Shinzo Abe visited New Delhi on his first bilateral visit, his speech on the 'Confluence of two seas' in the Indian Parliament- taking the cue from the book "Confluence of Two Seas" of Dara Sikoh, a Mughal prince - wherein he pointed out the growing influence of the Asian region and the connection between Indian and the Pacific Ocean in terms of connectivity, sharing of goods, the flow of capital, knowledge, ideas and people. His speech drew a line in the sand when he pointed out the need for joining forces by like-minded countries to secure the future of the region.

Perhaps the initial years of Quad passed in apprehensiveness and ambivalence of its member states who did not want to rattle China at that moment, soon with growing Chinese hedging, what started as an ambiguous idea of a HADR (Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief) coalition starts taking shape of a mini-lateral organization with a military hue. India, whilst acknowledging the need for change, struck in the cobweb of balancing the act and assuaging China’s fears. When PM Narendra Modi addressed the Shangri La Dialogue of 2018, his message of SAGAR (Security and growth for all in the region) hinted towards Beijing of New Delhi's assurance of not joining any Bandwagon led by the US. Interestingly, China has always faced dichotomy vis-a-vis Quad, where it mocked it as an informal and faceless organization on the one hand, inertly it felt apprehensive of its structure and its collusion with the geographical and strategic reach of China, on the other. 

Whilst the Quad has always been construed as an arrangement to balance out China in the strategic circles of New Delhi, that thing has never been materialized. However, as a more assertive China poses challenges to the existing world order, the salience of Quad has come into question. India’s official invitation to Australia to join Malabar naval exercise has made things clear, whilst India’s willingness to sign last out of the four foundational agreements with the US, the Basic Exchange and cooperation agreement (BECA) gives more substance to this speculation. As EAM Dr S. Jaishankar attended the Quad meet held in Tokyo and for the first time used the term " a rule-based world-order" and India's outright support to it, this shows a change in attitude towards Quad and the growing pertinence of this very mini-lateral security grouping in India's foreign policy in managing China, which until now has been overlooked.

 

Conclusion 

 When Ashley Tellis said that “Sino-Indian relations can never go back to the old normal. They will reset with greater competitiveness and in ways that neither country had intended at the beginning of the crisis.”, he was referring to how a small nudge can escalate the differences that will be irreparable. Until now India has tried to balance out multiple fronts at the same time, but now the situation has changed, with the growing emphasis on neighbourhood and institutionalization of the Quad. Bandwagoning will be a possible word in the Indian foreign policy and this compelling force got a boost with a belligerent China along the LAC. As India became cognizant of the looming China challenge, the lack of hard-power and economic power has compelled India to turn towards a soft-power approach. This has culminated in India's old approach of apprehensive diplomacy- by defining strategic autonomy and non-alignment- to more proactive diplomacy of self-interest and threat perception, which is now realigning New Delhi’s choices with the facts on the ground.

Whilst the situations on the ground aren't clear yet, one thing which becomes clear is that the year 2020 marks an important change in the contours of Indian diplomacy vis-a-vis China in the right direction and possibly at a right time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adventurism on the LAC and Indian options going ahead

On the night of 29-30 August 2020, again the agreed-upon status quo was broken down in one another play of adventurism by PLA, which in turn was thwarted by the Indian Army. Since the last clashes between the Indian Army and PLA on 15-16 June, tensions between both sides are brewing, irrespective of parallel military and diplomatic talks.

Tensions are easily palpable considering the statements, like the one of India's CDS Bipin Rawat who was talking of considering military options if diplomatic and military talks do not materialize or the one of Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi's saying that ambiguity along the border is the reason for clashes and his further adding about China's assertiveness over sovereignty and integrity of the Chinese land, which clearly shows the growing apprehension between both sides.

It is now a matter of the fact that India's continued reluctance to acknowledge the threat from growing China has caught New Delhi off-guard in a situation like the one now, but it is equally worth considering that the way things are getting heated up now in areas where contestation has never been materialized before (Pangong Tso and Galwan valley), shows that things are changing faster than what has been anticipated by Indian policymakers.

India and China have held five rounds of border talks to de-escalate the matters but to no avail. As China has further added to the deployed forces since the start of the stalemate in April, so does India, leading to mirroring of each other's positions. Reports show that China has deployed layers of heavy artillery, tanks, heavy machine guns, and aircraft on bases in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR). To add more to this, China has started deploying surface-to-air missiles near Kailash-Mansarovar, a sacred site for Hindu pilgrimage, which clearly shows the intent of China to provocate and worsen the matters. In addition, the missile base also hosts the Dong-Feng-21 (DF-21) ballistic missile with a range of 2200 km and sits at the mouth of the transboundary rivers that include the Brahmaputra, Sutlej, Indus and Karnali, making matters worse for India.

A growing force tilting in favour of China has prompted it to adopt a punishment-based strategy along the LAC, which in turn has made India ambivalent. Taking a cue from the 2013 Depsang clashes where a punishment-based strategy by the Indian side to cross the LAC and occupy to negotiate with the Chinese, the time slot for this strategy is now over for India. Whereas in the 2017 Doklam standoff a denial strategy was adopted by holding onto the grounds which helped India to negotiate, but this time around this strategy does not seem to be working in the Indian favour. 

Taking a cue from the 2013 Depsang clashes where a punishment-based strategy by the Indian side to cross the LAC and occupy to negotiate with the Chinese, the time slot for this strategy is now over for India. Whereas, the 2017 Doklam standoff denial strategy was adopted by holding onto the grounds which helped India to negotiate, but this time around this strategy does not seem to be working in Indian favour.  

 

With the furtherance of this stalemate and the Chinese strategy of nibbling away Indian territory with small and swift actions, commonly known as Salami-slice tactics, India is in a treacherous position to balance between ongoing confrontation and Economic destabilisation due to COVID-19. Adding to these woes, China is using sugar-daddy Diplomacy to win brownie points in the Indian neighbourhood to counter the diplomatic threats from India and its western allies.

 As matters become worse along the LAC, deployment and seriousness will mirror that of the LOC, which demarcates the boundary between India and Pakistan, and will truly rise to the aspirations of "Iron brotherhood" between China and Pakistan to destabilise India. Indian options are very limited but a threat from the prospect of a two-front war is an opportune time for India to consider some asymmetric options to clearly show the intentions and demarcate a red-line whose crossing will lead to unparalleled actions from the Indian side. 

Indian options are very limited but a threat from the prospect of a two-front war is an opportune time for India to consider some asymmetric options to clearly show the intentions and demarcate a red-line whose crossing will lead to unparalleled actions from the Indian side. 

 

Equally important is to seize the opportunity to strengthen support against China and form coalitions to add diplomatic strength to the Indian salvo. The Indian path to be "Atma-nirbhar" needs further consideration to back it with a policy-led initiative to inflict a cost on the Chinese economy and give a befitting reply in the future. More military-led actions are needed to procure and strengthen the contingent to close the growing gap, concomitantly, Naval power is something that can be harnessed to further this effectiveness.

Chinese intentions to stabilise and destabilise border on its own will, are indicating a long-haul in the matters along the LAC which has accentuated the threat perception globally from China, but it has also given a chance to India to take a look into India's foreign policy vis-à-vis China with a different paradigm to change the currently existing models and make them more India- centric. It is now worth considering what John F. Kennedy puts by saying, "Domestic policy can only defeat us; foreign policy can kill us". Gauging the need for reconfiguration is very important when things are changing very fast, and this is where Indian foreign policy, as well as its visions, needs careful reconsideration to pose threats to adversaries when and where required.

From peaceful State to a Global bully: Story of modern China

In 2004, the idea of "China's peaceful rise"  came into the mainstream with the then Chinese premier Hu Jintao - who embraced the idea and presented it- which sought to assure the international community that China's growing political, economic, and military power would not pose a threat to international peace and security. 

The continuous economic growth of China, a country that fought poverty with sheer determination and came out victorious by becoming the second-largest economy in the world, has served as a model to look upon with envy by countries around the world. With the continuous economic rise, Chinese aspirations for the military might have been accentuated further.

Today when we look at Beijing we can sense desperation and a craving for what they have never got, to remove the stain of "Century of Humiliation", and to again stand as the "Middle Kingdom" of the World. The recent actions of China in the South China Sea, Hong Kong and along the LAC, has forged an ideological bandwagon around the world to see China's rise, not peaceful anymore. For years, China worked to assure the international community that its rise was peaceful, that it would not try to overturn the status quo. A more assertive China has emerged under Xi, one more willing to confront its critics and brave damage to its reputation.

The major takeaways from the current situation are: First, China's reluctance to care about her external image globally, or to put it in another way, her mindset of getting more than giving away in the current situation. The current situation is an indication of China getting relieved from a fear of Global image, or it can be a situation amidst the pandemic in which China is considering more gains than losses from her current course of actions.

"China's reluctance to care about her external image globally, or to put it in another way, her mindset of getting more than giving away in the current situation."

 Second,  China's thinking of sufficient power differential to handle multiple fronts at the same time. The way the current situation is being construed is a perfect example of the perception of taking on the US and other countries at the same time, whilst others are engaged in a fight against the Pandemic.

"China's thinking of sufficient power differential to handle multiple fronts at the  same time."

And Third, China's ability to manipulate and her unpredictability of actions. The turn in the actions of China from Wolf-warrior Diplomacy to social media campaign for changing the narrative of COVID' origin, is in itself a show of unpredictability which was never seen before in such a vociferous way like the current one from Beijing's side.

"China's ability to manipulate and her unpredictability of actions."

The Statement of the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, " We are making it clear: Beijing's claim of offshore resources across most of the South China sea is completely unlawful, as is its campaign of bullying and controlling them", has drawn a red line for Beijing against her pursuit in the South China sea.

Recently India and the United States have conducted a Passage Exercise (PASSEX) between the American aircraft carrier group USS Nimitz and Indian Navy battleships around the archipelago of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, a few hundred kilometres from the mouth of the Malacca Strait and within an actionable distance of major trade sea routes that service China. The hints from India to include Australia into Malabar Naval exercise being conducted between India, the US and Japan, could be marked as the resurgence of the Quad as a counter to the Chinese rise, and with that, an open and free Indo-pacific has become much more relevant than ever. This, indeed, is direct finger-pointing onto China and her actions in the South China Sea and elsewhere.

This marks a major shift into India's Indo-pacific policy, which until now was a manifestation of an inclusive model of all the countries in the Indo-pacific region, as emphasized by Indian PM Narendra Modi during the Shangri-La dialogue of 2018, to an Indo-pacific which is more of a theme to counter Beijing by forging alliances, a clear indication of unity due to Chinese actions.

This policy shift is music to the ears of the Policymakers in the Whitehouse, but it is equally soothing for the countries of ASEAN who were bearing out the brunt of Chinese belligerence in their backyards. China not surprisingly has accused Washington of “interfering in the region’s issues and on unnecessarily escalating the situation and sowing discord between China and the Southeast Asian countries.”

The ASEAN countries, for their part, might appreciate the external players and especially the US finally circumventing its attention to this region, statements showing all-out support for the US’ new policy from the side of the ASEAN countries appears difficult at the moment. As noted by Collin Koh, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, “many of the rival claimants are also heavily reliant on China for trade and investment and wary of angering the dominant power in the neighbourhood. Their silence on the U.S. statement suggests they don’t want to get ensnared in U.S.-China tensions. For some of them at least, making an official statement in support of Pompeo’s statement could potentially put them in a spot.”

With the news of Iran and China's strengthening a new angle has been added to this already ambivalent situation. The animosity between The US and Iran is not new, and India's intricate position in between is equally known to everyone. The increasing bonhomie between China and Iran has added a new chapter to the woes due to the high stakes of India in the chabahar port and Afghanistan.

All these actions which are transpiring in the realm of this world point out to a more contested and hot Geopolitical climate in the time to come. The change in the  Chinese attitude from 'panda's peaceful rise' as a status quo power to the ‘dragon's aggressive' ascent as a revisionist power, and her actions to be a world's bully, has become a major inflexion point for the World-order. But will this situation turn into a major contestation between China and the US or will it result in backing-off by Beijing, is still a matter of great mystery. But one thing which is emerging out from the Current discourse is,      

 "China's Peaceful rise is not peaceful anymore"

 

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This article was originally published in The Eastern Herald.

Russian angle in Sino-Indian border stand-off

The recent border stand-off between India and China which turned out to be violent inflicting casualties on both sides has escalated the matters to new heights. Consistent diplomatic and Military intervention through regular talks has neither been able to cool down the tensions nor been able to build confidence among each other. 

This situation is a black swan event in the history of International relations where world-over is raging over the Chinese actions in different areas from the LAC to Hongkong, but none have taken actions against China in a major way. The moment is true self-sufficiency or Atma nirbhar moment for India, to deal with belligerent actions of China on the border areas single-handedly.

The current crisis has started a diplomatic war to win the countries to include them in their respective blocs and amid this war, a player has emerged whose importance in the current impasse has been catching the eyes of the spectators around the world: Russia. 

Russia, a time-tested and historic partner of India, has adopted a silence over the border skirmish by PLA at a time when the world is spewing poison on Chinese actions, which shows the growing Bonhomie between Moscow and Beijing. It is a matter of fact that in International relations nothing is permanent, not even enemies or allies. Russia, who was an arch-rival of China in the 70s due to issues for heirdom of Marxist ideology, close relations with India and tensions along the borders, now finds a natural ally in the face of China at a time when western powers are coming onto Russia after Crimean annexation of 2014.

Russia has emerged as the natural peace-maker or mediator between India and China, the hunch of which can be found in the recently concluded trilateral virtual meeting of the RIC (Russia-India-China) grouping on June 22, whose timing after the Sino-Indian border clash is not a coincidence. On June 2, the Russian Ambassador to India Nikolay kudashev  met Indian Foreign Secretary Harsh V. Shringla to discuss “key regional and international issues.” The meeting followed a statement from the Russian Embassy in India that both sides will be able “to find ways out” of the crisis using “dedicated specific mechanisms and tools… including hotlines, special representatives dialogue, and even informal summits.” 

 Moscow’s position was also articulated by Konstantin kosachev, the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Federal Assembly, who stated that,

"Russia should not interfere in these kinds of disputes..... and would encourage dialogue and prevent the use of military force."

However, Russia found itself in a state of a dilemma to choose between India and China at a time when the Russian foreign policy hinges on the stability of the Eurasian region, and whose importance is only legitimate with the support of India and China in that process. The process of RIC is to get the support of two big giants sitting in Asia for the success of the Eurasian Economic Union, built on the line of The EU, to better deal with modern-day blockades and sanctions by the US. Russia certainly does not want Hobson's choice to deal with this situation, and to do that Quiet Diplomacy has been adopted by Russia.

The move of India to dispatch its Defence Minister Mr Rajnath Singh to attend the celebration of Victory day parade, postponed due to COVID and celebrated on 24 June in Moscow, shows the clear intent of India to reach out to Russia to win the support. Russia being the biggest source of Indian defence equipment is a major player for India to secure its borders and display Military response on a par with PLA on the LAC.

In a World struggling to revive Multilateral organizations, and where the current narratives signify the hue like the one of the Cold War era, exacerbated by Chinese actions in this time of the Pandemic, Russia has adopted a neo-Non-aligned strategy to deal with the current situation. But given the current scenario where  New Delhi does not want the repetition of the situation like the one of the 1962 Sino-Indian war, where Russia remained silent on the issue highlighting the problems of the Cuban missile crisis unlike the 1971 Indo-Pak war, has been consolidating pressure on Russia. On the other hand, the New strategic partner of Russia, a soulmate to deal with the looming pressure of the US is also penting-up the pressure on Russia to remain silent on the issue.

Stakes are high for Russia in the Current times. The Indian public is closely watching the Russian actions and a lot of questions are there in their minds, at the same time, the politburo of China is waiting for the Russian support as a reciprocating measure in the time of need. We should prepare ourselves for a long-haul on the border stand-off, which can re-shape the global order and have possible consequences for every action Russia takes vis-a-vis Sino-Indian border clashes.

A Belligerent Dragon dancing with the Elephant

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An unfortunate incident happened on the night of 15-16 June, when the recent impasse on the LAC broke down leading to a melee at Galwan valley, killing 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese soldiers (43 Chinese soldiers dead reported by Indian sources). This event is in stark contrast with the statements coming from the military brass and Diplomatic sources engaged in de-escalating the tensions on the LAC with their Chinese counterparts.

The reason for the scuffle as specified by Indian Army sources, was a check-in process by a team of Indian soldiers led by Col. Santosh Babu to check and remove the left-over illegal camps built by Chinese soldiers on the Indian side of the LAC which led to over-aggressive behaviour by Chinese soldiers and fisticuffs, killing soldiers from both sides. 

With this event, the streak of no bloodshed on the LAC since 1975, in which 4 Indian soldiers of Assam rifles lost their life at Tulung La situated in Arunachal Pradesh, has been broken. This is a clear case of violation of key agreements of 1993,1996 and 2013 between both sides, through which they are committed to maintaining peace despite differing perceptions of the LAC.

The statement of Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi has underlined that India wants peace but “will give a befitting reply” if provoked, and External affairs minister S Jaishankar has conveyed to his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi that the Galwan Valley development will have a “serious” impact on the bilateral relationship, shows the change in the stance of the political leadership of India.

Belligerent China is pursuing her interest, at a time when global turmoil is evident due to the Corona Pandemic. Shrouded with the Pandemic, China has recently passed a Security bill for Hong-kong, started coming vociferously in the South China Sea, increased her critical narratives on Taiwan and taking a hard stance on the LAC against India, all being attempted at the same time.

The current tensions on the LAC have been perceived to be due to changing dynamics of global politics and a pro-active foreign policy of India slipping towards the anti-Chinese group, coupled with the building of a road called DSDBO (Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat beg oldie) connecting Leh with the Karakoram, build a few miles away from the Aksai Chin. But, are these the real reasons for the Chinese hard stance or are there other things we have missed?

We must bear in mind that the changing power dynamics tilting towards China is a nudge for China to be more belligerent in different areas to push for the agenda of Chinese nationalism in a time when voices are being raised against Chinese leadership at home as well as globally. At a time when the whole world is very much dependent on China for its manufacturing needs, these actions seem to be logical.

One thing which the world is isolated from is The modern Kingdom (China) with a medieval mindset. The book is written in the 5th century by a Chinese Army General Sun Tzu named "The Art of War" is still relevant today, not only for learning purposes but also for practical applications.

 "The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without even fighting"

                                               ~Sun Tzu

And that's what is happening now, a continuous game of hardening, followed by negotiations, almost resembling an endless motion inside a loop. China's increasing investment in foreign countries, with increasing clout through Cultural diplomacy and People's Diplomacy to have influenced all around the world, find resemblance in the work of Sun Tzu, to defeat the enemy by making him impotent even without waging a war.

As China is denying a process of exchanging the maps with India, which clearly shows the intention of leveraging the LAC position through ambiguity to pressurise India, as and when required, The nibbling away tactics are just a game of China which is the brain-Child of the most ambitious leader of China, Mr Jinping, after whose succession the flare-up on the LAC has increased, be it the skirmishes of 2013 at Daulat beg oldie and 2017 Doklam Crisis or the Current impasse on the LAC on multiple areas.

China is a country whose tactics are unknown but whose goals are very much known, The Middle Kingdom. All the moves consolidate to make China stride in that direction. The surprising move of China claiming Galwan Valley, a shift from the past, is meant to make India agree on the existing status quo, by nibbling away the occupied land from India. But the current crisis between India and China is an Eye-opening moment for India, debunking the misplaced sense of our ability to handle China and an illusion provided by the informal summits of Wuhan and Mamallapuram, and making us aware that we not only have one enemy to deal with we have two, one being in wide-open (Pakistan) and other being hiding in the face of an Economically(China).

Ashley Tellis of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace -a South Asian Strategic affairs analyst of repute says India – like all other countries – which share a border with China have only three choices. First, retaliate against expansionism by copy-cat capture of poorly defined territory held by China. Second, resist expansionary claims actively – on the ground and diplomatically. Third lie back and accept the rape.

The third option seems irrelevant in the current scenario given the current government which is riding on the wave of nationalism finds itself in a dilemma to consider that option. The first option, employed earlier, has reaped no fruits, in the meantime leading to the current situation. Now the only left option with us is confronting through multiple fronts, with upgradation in our defence infrastructure coupled with formulating a new National Security Strategy to confront these kinds of situations in the near future, wisely. A clearer stance on the LAC, by resolving it through consensus and not allowing it to fester by clearing out all the differences as well as forging the global alliances to diffuse any unilateral action by China are the ways forward. Equally important is to consider the Economic front, to steer clear of growing Chinese dominance in the Global Economic front as well as Indian dependence on it. Ours is an Economy ⅕ the size of the Chinese, and here lies the great task ahead to be cautious of the path ahead without disturbing the interest of the Indian populace.

 

China is certainly ahead of India in Military and Economic terms, but are we willing to legitimise the killing of our fellow countrymen, just not to confront thinking of a powerful Enemy?

Indeed the steps taken by the GOI, to stop Chinese cheap goods imports to India, cancelling of Indian Railways infrastructure building deal with China and the Launch of the Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative, are some of the moves in the right direction. The government is now taking their share of responsibilities, now is the time to ask, Are we taking ours?

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This Article was originally published in the 

Eastern Herald.

A Digital idea whose time has come!!

Recently People's Bank of China(PBOC) launched a pilot project to use Digital currency, officially called as DC/EP (digital currency Electronic payment), to be used in four major Cities of Shenzhen, Suzhou, Chengdu, Xiong'an and areas that will host some of the events of the Winter Olympics 2022. The idea is to fully operationalise a digital currency before the winter Olympics of 2022, to be held in China and for that China wants to digitalise her financial system, and if successful, China will become the first country to do so. This all amidst a time when the tensions between The US and China are on an all time high, and a new term "Cold-war 2.0" is being proposed due to brewing tensions between two major rival powers.

The History of Digital Currency

In 1983, a research paper by David Chaum, introduced the idea of Digital Currency. E-gold became the first widely used internet money introduced in 1996, used until 2008 after which the US shut it down. After the Dot-com bubble of the 1990s, the idea of Digital Currency started pouring.

In 2009, Bitcoin was launched, with which the idea of decentralised block-chain based digital currency with no central server got into mainstream. Since then, digital currencies  are with us in many forms be it centralised digital systems like Google wallet and Apple pay, or Decentralised systems like Cryptocurrency (Bitcoin), they all are in our continuous use in day-to-day activities. The latest in the chain of Digital Currency is Facebook's Libra, a stable and centralised currency unlike Bitcoin, launched in 2020.

E-Yuan, the idea behind it?

China is not new to digital ways of payment, as Alipay and Wechat Pay are some of the most frequently used mediums for money transactions in China. This idea has something different which has nothing to do with making Yuan more efficient, but more to do with the geopolitical conditions.

With so much of the world dependent on U.S. banking, it can mean that even companies with no U.S. operations still depend on the American financial system.

"Even a company that has basically no trade in the United States, their banks do,” Jarrett Blanc, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Faced with this Dilemma of hegemonic position of  US's Dollars in the international financial arena, China has been facing the threat of US sanctions due to continuous deteriorating relationships between both the countries. To dodge the sanctioning power of the US, China is trying to decrease the presence of Dollar in the International Market. The presence of SWIFT system, a system used for Banking transactions around the world  dominated by the US, has become a major bottleneck for Chinese plans to expand their Currency.

But there are not just bottlenecks, China has achieved successes in the past. China achieved her first win when included into The WTO in 2001, which paved the way for China to integrate herself with the World. Her next success came in the october of 2016, when Yuan(locally pronounced as Renminbi) was added to the list of the top-five most-used currencies, in addition to the U.S. dollar, Euro, Yen, and British pound, making it a part of IMF's Special Drawing Rights Basket- an international reserve asset that the IMF created as a supplement to member countries' official reserves.

Chinese plans do not stop here, the idea of Petroyuan  came into existence, to dig deep into the international financial system by paying more money in the form of Yuan instead of the U.S. dollar for trading the oil imports to China with arch rivals of The U.S. like Russia and Iran.

Consequences of this Action

Now the question arises,

Why does the World need to be threatened from this development happening in China?

The answer to this question lies in the geopolitical development around the world. As the alienation of the world with China is increasing day-by-day, the recent announcement and its hastiness put up questions about Chinese intentions. Adding to that, the growing influence of China in Economic terms and its long-term plan to challenge dollar's hegemony and to replace The US from Superpower position, increases the concern of world-over. 

In the World where nearly 90 percent of international transactions in 2019 were in U.S. dollar, and about 60 percent of foreign reserves were in the form of dollars compared to Chinese Yuan which make up to 2 percent of global payment and reserves, this action will change the perception of China around the World, which has the potential to de-stabilise the international financial system from its de-facto position.

With Digital currency in line, the technological advancements in this direction will see a major boost in the coming times. A world which is reeling under a contagious virus, halting every economic and social activity, the development in the direction of digital currency will help the world to fight better against such Pandemics in the future.

What's in it for India?

Digital India, a scheme close to Indian hearts, has been a success which helped India to increase financial inclusion as well as helped in people' turn towards paperless Currency. As Reliance jio added 200 million new internet users new internet users last year, India is poised to be the second-largest digital nation, which paved the way for more digital processes. While Bhim-UPI, and other wallet services are much of success in India, there still remains a void for Digital Rupee, which a wallet payment method can never fill.

A digital payment method like UPI or Paytm, uses the chain of Indian banks for money transaction, in contrast, Digital Rupee(centralised Bank digital Currency), will truncate this long-chain operation and will give onus in the hands of the RBI. 

In today's World, India is facing many roadblocks to her growth like lack of transparency, high financial illiteracy and financial exclusion and de-stability of Indian Rupee, a Digital Rupee is the solution for all.

This idea has many benefits like:-

1. Faster transactions from a payer to payee as the long-chain will be reduced because The RBI will be the sole body to handle the network.

2. Cost-effective management system as it will decrease the cost of printing money and decrese the time taken by the network, which will make the system more efficient in person-to-person transactions. 

3. A more transparent system which can help in  stopping illicit activities like money laundering and terrorist fundings, with a more strong financial security system.

4. Financial inclusion and Financial literacy will increase, as in today's India where there is a lack of Infrastructure and last mile connectivity to banks, this idea is a solution to all those problems.

5. A faster monetary action and a stronger Central bank, as the change in any of the banking instruments like Repo Rate or Bank rate will directly be transferred to people in a hassle-free way, and with more reserves through deposits of people in the Central bank, India will be better equiped against any financials de-stabilities, which in turn will make the working of Indian financial system more robust.

But as everything in this world comes with its own pros and cons, this idea comes with its cons which includes the privacy concerns for individuals, more controls in the hand of Government, threat of cyber crimes and erosion of existing banking models and revenues.

India which is making strides in innovation and technology in a world having geopolitical concerns, this idea is a game-changer.

Conclusion

As the war of ideology and vested-interests will accentuate in the coming times, an idea of digital innovation in financial matters will equip India for better a financial stability and more robust Currency. The idea of Digital Rupee has many upsides with quite a few concerns, now the time has come for the GOI and the RBI to look into this matter and work upon a detailed plan about structure, rules and regulations while resolving all the major concerns of this idea, to implement a Digital Rupee that will serve India better in a world full-off tumultuous shifts. The creation of Digital currency is an opportunity for India to empower its citizens and enable them to use it freely in our ever expanding Digital Economy and break free from an outdated banking system.

This is an idea whose time has come.

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This article was originally published at The Eastern Herald.

Dragon's dynamics- A well thought-out move?

The current border skirmishes along LAC (Line of Actual Control) reported in Eastern Ladakh sector and Northern Sikkim, injuring a dozen of soldiers in physical clashes, followed by increased troop positioning and increased boat-patrolling by PLA in Galwan River valley is a worrying trend for India.

This all amid a time when India is still struggling to contain the COVID Pandemic, all these incidents taking place seems insensitive now. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian stated: “Chinese border troops have always been upholding peace and tranquility along our border areas. China and India stay in close communication and coordination concerning our border affairs within existing channels".  The statements from The COAS Gen. M M Naravane said, "There were two incidents at Eastern Ladakh and North Sikkim where aggressive behaviour by both sides resulted in minor injuries to troops post which both sides disengaged after dialogue and interaction at local level", both these statements helped to downplay the flare-up in the current situation.

An unprecedented Act?

The disputes between Indian military and PLA (People's Liberation Army) on border areas of LAC has been the issue since the past, but the recent development on the border is different from what we have seen in the past, where in the past the tensions used to de-escalate after the meetings by local military leaders, this time however, the chinese troops are alleged to build camps near Galwan Valley with increased boat patrols in Galwan river, with no sign of abatement even after the continuous meetings between military leaders of both sides. Equally new is the vociferous act by PLA and the frequency with which these incidents happened.

 Another unprecedented act is the silence of Chinese media and Chinese officials who are adopting a Silence Diplomacy, a rare show, on this issue unlike the Doklam Crisis where daily on-ground reporting was used to uplift the sentiments of the local population against India. This time, it is different with everything happening silently and with more force.

The Reasons for Dispute

China seems to be upping the ante against India. What can be the possible reasons behind it, is it a perception of boundary problem, or is it problem of taking away of special status from J&K by The GOI, or is it the recent road development by India on the Indian side of LAC, or is it the move to draw a red line for India by China over India's changing state by supporting the Taiwan issue and an independent investigation into the origin of the Pandemic. There are several possibilities one can think of, and several analysts and experts are offering different perceptions in this regard.

India and China have a real issue of perception of boundaries, what game theorists refer to as the "Commitment problem." In game theory, a commitment problem arises when two actors would be better off in the present by committing themselves to a cooperative relationship in the future. But, if the actors know that they will prefer to renege on their agreement in the future, the benefits of cooperation in the present cannot be realized, and even a mutually beneficial agreement cannot be struck. Simply put, if "Rising" India assumes that her material power and leverage vis-a-vis China is likely to improve, India has no incentive on accepting a China's "benign hegemony" and a negotiated settlement at a time when India cannot realise the advantage of this increased leverage. This is also true in China's case, with an aspiration of future "Global power", China considers to be getting more out of India in the future. A status quo agreement that seeks to formalize the existing LAC becomes difficult to accept.

Now to understand why it is happening on Indian borders, we also have to look at the development in Chinese politics. Recently the 13th National People's Congress (NPC) and 3rd session of 13th China People's Political consultative Congress  (CPPCC) have concluded, which are considered to be the biggest events for the political class in China. The CCP (Chinese Communist Party) who is under severe criticism from Chinese citizens due to the Economic crisis and the handling of COVID, has opted a strategy to flex its muscles in this time to strengthen its position. The simmering tension inside CCP has made Mr. Xi do the things with alacrity and whenever an autocratic regime finds itself in danger of coup or oust, it acts vociferously inside and outside, to strengthen its position, that is what we are now seeing from Mr. Jinping's side.

Another area to look upon is recent development in global politics, where allegations on China's role in the contagion (COVID) has strengthened worldwide, which has prompted China to look for ways to shut the voices, be it sanctioning Australia or drawing red lines for India through border dispute or Employing the show of Power Politics in the South China Sea to shut the voices in neighbouring states. The issue of Taiwan's inclusion into WHO and the increasing voice against Chinese action in Hongkong (where PRC has recently passed a National security bill taking away the sovereignty of Hongkong), are the issues which China has perceived as an attack to her One-China policy, which prompted China to act violently.

The recent development of Road (DSDBO) on the India side of LAC upto Galwan Valley is something which China wants India to avoid. China has good infrastructure near Border areas, but this is not the case for India, however, India has made strides in the recent past. The latest skirmishes on LAC is an excuse China is giving for her actions which is a red sign from Chinese side to India. Here, China is opting for a Pakistani strategy of blaming India for escalations on borders and justifying her actions against India.

All these amalgamate to make the current issue more serious. Now looking behind closed doors, what we don't know is the big aspirations of current Chinese leader Mr. Jinping, to be the best leader in the Chinese history vis-a-vis his predecessors, for that what he needs is a powerful regime both Politically and Economically, which can only be consolidated when CCP looks powerful worldwide and at home, which Mr. Jinping is trying to do through coercion.

Wuhan spirit- A dead concept?

Now what about the Wuhan spirit which helped India and China to de-escalate the tensions in the Doklam area. India and China have signed several agreements, including the Agreement on the Maintenance of Peace and Tranquillity along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China Border Areas (September 1993), the Agreement on Confidence Building Measures in the Military Field along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China Border Areas (November 1996), and most recently, the Border Defence Cooperation Agreement (2013), none of which appear so far to have helped in the current tensions.

One must question the efficacy of the Wuhan Spirit, that is it really in the Indian interest now, seeing the current Chinese aggression. To answer this, We must also know the fact that Wuhan Spirit, as it is pronounced, was a measure to put-down the pressure during the Doklam crisis, which is very much different from the current situation. We must not get diverged from the fact that the current game of PLA is a long drawn strategy of PRC to capture its lost territory by small and decisive steps be it the Tibetisation of Indian Himalayas or circling India through String of pearls, every action in Chinese book has a hidden meaning and a long-term plan. Wuhan spirit is a hollow agreement by China to show the willingness to work for resolving border issues, which doesn't reap any results in that direction, so relying on Wuhan spirit is a fallacy today.

The Road Ahead for India

The current situation is somewhat a fait accompli for India if China moves ahead by building more checkposts, then India will have two ways to confront the situation, either face the Chinese face-to-face and escalate the situation, or back-off, same as what Chinese had during the Doklam Crisis. They did back-off, but is it feasible for India.

In Diplomacy, Patience is mostly a virtue, until it is not.

The current situation doesn't support a backing-off option and a patient approach, India needs to confront the situation with the same force as China, to send a message, at the same time increasing diplomatic pressure through forging relationships with like-minded countries is what is in the best interest of India today. 

A Carnegie report highlights, the best way to guarantee “peace and tranquility” on the Sino-Indian border is to focus on military-to-military communication, which would “allow the two sides to immediately clarify any relevant issues at a more senior directive level.” Also building a military deterrence capability to reduce any future possible Chinese provocations on borders is an imperative for India today.

Conclusion

The current situation does not allow China to go on for an all-out war with India, because it will cost them Economically as well as Politically, which they cannot bear. The current geopolitical air is on the Indian side with a strengthening anti-Chinese narrative , so India is in a lead position vis-a-vis China.

The need of the hour is to de-escalate the tensions on LAC and focus on the health and Economic crises prevailing throughout the World. As Henry A. Kissinger once said,

" No foreign policy- No matter how ingenious it is- has any chance of success if it is born in The Minds of a few and carried in the Hearts of none"

The current Chinese actions fits exactly into these words. Unless the Chinese leadership considers how flawed the time they have chosen for these actions without considering its consequences, they will continue to face a dead-hole situation, from which there is no coming back.