Russian angle in Sino-Indian border stand-off

The recent border stand-off between India and China which turned out to be violent inflicting casualties on both sides has escalated the matters to new heights. Consistent diplomatic and Military intervention through regular talks has neither been able to cool down the tensions nor been able to build confidence among each other. 

This situation is a black swan event in the history of International relations where world-over is raging over the Chinese actions in different areas from the LAC to Hongkong, but none have taken actions against China in a major way. The moment is true self-sufficiency or Atma nirbhar moment for India, to deal with belligerent actions of China on the border areas single-handedly.

The current crisis has started a diplomatic war to win the countries to include them in their respective blocs and amid this war, a player has emerged whose importance in the current impasse has been catching the eyes of the spectators around the world: Russia. 

Russia, a time-tested and historic partner of India, has adopted a silence over the border skirmish by PLA at a time when the world is spewing poison on Chinese actions, which shows the growing Bonhomie between Moscow and Beijing. It is a matter of fact that in International relations nothing is permanent, not even enemies or allies. Russia, who was an arch-rival of China in the 70s due to issues for heirdom of Marxist ideology, close relations with India and tensions along the borders, now finds a natural ally in the face of China at a time when western powers are coming onto Russia after Crimean annexation of 2014.

Russia has emerged as the natural peace-maker or mediator between India and China, the hunch of which can be found in the recently concluded trilateral virtual meeting of the RIC (Russia-India-China) grouping on June 22, whose timing after the Sino-Indian border clash is not a coincidence. On June 2, the Russian Ambassador to India Nikolay kudashev  met Indian Foreign Secretary Harsh V. Shringla to discuss “key regional and international issues.” The meeting followed a statement from the Russian Embassy in India that both sides will be able “to find ways out” of the crisis using “dedicated specific mechanisms and tools… including hotlines, special representatives dialogue, and even informal summits.” 

 Moscow’s position was also articulated by Konstantin kosachev, the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Federal Assembly, who stated that,

"Russia should not interfere in these kinds of disputes..... and would encourage dialogue and prevent the use of military force."

However, Russia found itself in a state of a dilemma to choose between India and China at a time when the Russian foreign policy hinges on the stability of the Eurasian region, and whose importance is only legitimate with the support of India and China in that process. The process of RIC is to get the support of two big giants sitting in Asia for the success of the Eurasian Economic Union, built on the line of The EU, to better deal with modern-day blockades and sanctions by the US. Russia certainly does not want Hobson's choice to deal with this situation, and to do that Quiet Diplomacy has been adopted by Russia.

The move of India to dispatch its Defence Minister Mr Rajnath Singh to attend the celebration of Victory day parade, postponed due to COVID and celebrated on 24 June in Moscow, shows the clear intent of India to reach out to Russia to win the support. Russia being the biggest source of Indian defence equipment is a major player for India to secure its borders and display Military response on a par with PLA on the LAC.

In a World struggling to revive Multilateral organizations, and where the current narratives signify the hue like the one of the Cold War era, exacerbated by Chinese actions in this time of the Pandemic, Russia has adopted a neo-Non-aligned strategy to deal with the current situation. But given the current scenario where  New Delhi does not want the repetition of the situation like the one of the 1962 Sino-Indian war, where Russia remained silent on the issue highlighting the problems of the Cuban missile crisis unlike the 1971 Indo-Pak war, has been consolidating pressure on Russia. On the other hand, the New strategic partner of Russia, a soulmate to deal with the looming pressure of the US is also penting-up the pressure on Russia to remain silent on the issue.

Stakes are high for Russia in the Current times. The Indian public is closely watching the Russian actions and a lot of questions are there in their minds, at the same time, the politburo of China is waiting for the Russian support as a reciprocating measure in the time of need. We should prepare ourselves for a long-haul on the border stand-off, which can re-shape the global order and have possible consequences for every action Russia takes vis-a-vis Sino-Indian border clashes.